My Lifetime sales predictions

[zorg1000]

Captain_Tom said:

spurgeonryan said:

Captain_Tom said:

So I have been analyzing past sales charts and I feel comfortable making my Life Time sales predictions for the consoles below. Please note that I expect to be less accurate the newer a console is (Maybe stating the obvious). Tell me what you think. Prediction in descending launch date (And therefore accuracy):

PSP:81-86m

Xbox 360: 85-95m

PS3: 90-105m

Wii: 102-105m

3DS: 50-70m

PSV: 20-30m

Wii U: 20-40m

NOTE: I didn't mention the DS because it is over.  Any prediction would be crazy obvious.

[Posted 5/29/13]

The DS is far from over. It will sell in the west for a while longer.

 

I would agree with Vita and Wii U. Not the 3DS though. Probably more like 90-120 million.

But it seems like the 3DS has already peaked after its first price cut only a few months from release.  Personally I think largescale handdheld gaming as seen in the Gameboy and PSP is over.  It will probably live on, but as much smaller levels.  Smartphones have just decimated that segment...

I ageee that smartphones/tablets have stolen some of handheld sales but I think its too early to say 3DS has peaked. In the west we have a big system seller in Animal Crossing coming soon plus a stacked summer line up. In Japan Monster Hunter 4 hasnt released yet and that will def push hardware. Then Pokemon X/Y releasing worldwide in the fall will gaurantee a ton of sales this holiday.

Also 3DS still costs $170-200, a $30-40 price cut+redesign on the original model are possible for next year, also games like Dragon Quest XI, 3D Land 2, Smash Bros are system sellera that could release in 2014.

So basically I dont think 3DS has peaked yet, this year will be higher that last(16-18m) and 2014 slightly higher than this year(18-20m). After that a few years of gradual decline and a successor between 2016-2018.