eh quite a few reasons that are not in fact not reasonable at all.
- That PS3 is above 360 now is completely irrelevant
- I don't get your third point either.
- Madden will be on 360 for many many years, but perhaps not with the Ignite engine. But that doesn't matter at all. Madden is not the hardware mover you make it out to be. Every iteration sells about 2.5m on 360.
GTA V should move more hardware than the last 5 Maddens combined.
So yeah you got one valid point.
Another much more point would be that hardware sales have been slowing down for the past 2 years.
Now we could still hear something about a $99 360 at E3 or maybe next year and we don't know how that could push the sales and we don't know how people will react to the prices of the next gen consoles.
Do you think that a person who doesn't have any console from the Wii/360/PS3 gen would get a PS4, Xbox One or WiiU at launch ? Surely not. Those that get a console within the first year are largely those who already own one or more consoles.
Just like PS2 sold more than the 360 when they were direct competitors, you can expect the PS3 and 360 to be still very relevant, when the next gen consoles launch.
Assuming a 25% drop for 360 sales this year, it should end at 83m in 2013. (current Jan-April YOY drop is 17%)