The first mistake is comparing the Wii U's situation to the 3DS and Vita's. In terms of markets they serve, the baseline, competition they can not be further from the same.
My main reasons for the Wii U underperforming and not having a 3DS like return is because again as I mentioned in my previous thread its low baseline will be almost impossible to get out of. Even if sales triple from current levels, you are still looking at a system selling less than the PS360 currently. Also I am drawing parallels to the gamecube of 2003 (April to June 80k total shipments worldwide) but with less support.
Gamecube shipments fiscal year 2003 (March 2003 - April 2004) total 5.02 million
Price $149 dollars until September 2003...$99
Games:
Nintendo First Party:
Zelda Wind Waker
I think 3 zelda collections
Mario Kart Double Dash
Kirby Air Ride
Mario Gold Toadstool Tour
Mario Party 5
F-Zero GX
Exclusives (if only timed):
Ikaruga, viewtiful joe, Star Wars Rogue Squadron III, P.N 03
3rd Party:
All EA releases:
Nba live, Fifa, NCAA, madden, need for speed underground, plus games from EA BIG such as the street games, SSX3, def jam venetta and the sims
Ubisoft support:
Rayman 3 Hoodlum Havor, Tom Clancy's splinter cell and Ghost Recon, beyond good and evil, Prince of Persia sands of time
3 Resident Evil remakes/re-releases, Soul Calibur 2, Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles, Simpsons Hit and Run, Tony Hawk Underground
All the above all in 2003 (i'm probably missing some games) with the price cut (which was already low to begin with) and only managed 5 million. Nintendo expects 9 million this year with a console triple the price, less support, pretty much the same games (Wind Waker? Resident evil remakes, A Nintendo party game, pretty much parallel Ubisoft support, and rumblings of a Mario kart not making the holiday season release date.) lead me to believe that this console is not set to sell.