Here are my (completely random) guesses for when big Wii software will come out in Japan:

DK Bongo Blast - June 28

Wii Health Pack - July 10

Disaster: Day of Crisis - July 25

Mario Party 8 - Aug 3

Project H.A.M.M.E.R. August 12

Wii Music - August 25

Super Mario Galaxy - August 25

Battallion Wars II - Sept 23 

Forever Blue - Sept 23 

Super Smash Bros. Brawl - October 25

Mario Strikers Charged - Nov 12

Metroid Prime 3: Corruption - Nov 12 

Mario and Sonic at the Olympics - Nov 20 

Consider that Big Brain Academy, Pokemon, Zelda, Fire Emblem, One Piece, Wii Play and Wii Sports are already out for Wii in Japan.

Big unreleased 3rd party offerings for the year include:

RE 4 Wii - July 5

Dragon Quest: Swords July 12 

RE: Umbrella Chronicles - Aug 1

Opoona - Sept 5

Treasure Island Z - Sept 19

Nights - October 1 

DDR Wii - October 12

Here is how I would split the games into categories:

- Casual, easy to pick up 2-4 player traditional games

- 1 player, fairly tough to pick up traditional games with wide appeal

-  Niche gamer games that are 1-4 players

- Non games that appeal to non-gamers, but may sell to gamers as well..

Casual gamer games:  Mario Party 8, Mario Strikers, Bongo Blast, Brawl, Mario & Sonic, DDR

Niche gamer games: Nights, Batallion Wars, Metroid Prime 3, Forever Blue, Disaster: Day of Crisis

1 Player/wide appeal: Galaxy, RE, RE4 Wii, DQ: Swords, Opoona, Treasure Island 

Non games: Wii Health, Wii Music

Here is how I expect sales to break down by category (for big games)...

Non games: 1 million+ in sales over the lifetime of Wii in Japan (Wii Sports, Wii Play, Wii Music, Wii Health).

Casual gamer games: 350,000 to 2 million in sales over lifetime of Wii in Japan (Brawl, Mario Party 8).

1 Player/wide appeal: 200,000 to 1.5 million in sales over lifetime of Wii in Japan (Super Mario Galaxy).

Niche gamer games: 100,000 to 600,000 in sales over lifetime of Wii in Japan (Fire Emblem, Zelda).

For the 20 'big' games of 2007 (Japan) I have listed above, here is how I think they will rank in overall sales (when each has stopped selling completely):

1)  Wii Music - 3,450,000

2) Wii Health - 3,230,000

3) Brawl - 1,400,000

4) Galaxy - 1,250,000

5) Strikers - 1,100,000

6) Mario Party 8 - 880,000

7) DQ: Swords - 600,000

8) Mario & Sonic 550,000

9) Bongo Blast 530,000

10) DDR Wii 518,000

11) RE: Umbrella Chronicles 500,000

12) Opoona 473,000

13) Treasure Island 430,000

14) Nights 400,000

15) RE4 365,000

16) Project H.A.M.M.E.R 300,000

17) Forever Blue 235,000 

18) Diasaster: Day of Crisis 210,000

19) Batallion Wars 120,000

20) Metroid Prime 3 110,000

I think those all seem pretty accurate, especially nights which will likely have a strong showing on wii, but because it wasnt commercially successful for saturn in europe or america i think those are liekly to be the main sales numbers.  Although i. think brawl will do better in sales maybe around the 2.5 mark, cos it was by far the best selling cube game in japan and that was console which was far less popular.

I expect Galaxy to sell far more. Considering how well New Super Mario Bros. did in Japan, how hyped Galaxy is and how well the wii is doing in Japan, I predict sales of 3+ millions.

How come Mario Party is coming out in US first? (May 29)

You actually think Wii Music is gonna sell? Why? 

For the past couple of years Nintendo has been odd like that, releasing games in North America or Europe first rather than always releasing games in Japan first. Certainly, the majority of games get released in Japan first but on occasion another region gets the game released first.

I tend to think Wii Music/Health won't sell that much. Primarily because I think it'll have a great Wii Sports-like Tier ratio, but not very strong 1st week sales (maybe 150k or so), then hover around 50-60k a week for months on end. Should be more like 2.4 and 1.8m units respectively.

I keep saying that I think Wii Health will be one of the biggest titles around the world for this year, it's un-expected but look at the success of Brain Training, now if Nintendo can some way figure out how to make exercising fun and enjoyable to the point where people enjoy it so much that they WANT to exercise on a daily basis, it might just be the cure for the obesity problem taking over the world. It's this new style of play that hasn't been done before that is being so successful on the Wii, look at Sports and Play (although play is pretty unfair because it's just a remote + $10 game) but Health, Music, Big Brain Academy will be the biggest games for Wii of 2007 (other than Wii Sports already).