Here are my (completely random) guesses for when big Wii software will come out in Japan:
DK Bongo Blast - June 28
Wii Health Pack - July 10
Disaster: Day of Crisis - July 25
Mario Party 8 - Aug 3
Project H.A.M.M.E.R. August 12
Wii Music - August 25
Super Mario Galaxy - August 25
Battallion Wars II - Sept 23
Forever Blue - Sept 23
Super Smash Bros. Brawl - October 25
Mario Strikers Charged - Nov 12
Metroid Prime 3: Corruption - Nov 12
Mario and Sonic at the Olympics - Nov 20
Consider that Big Brain Academy, Pokemon, Zelda, Fire Emblem, One Piece, Wii Play and Wii Sports are already out for Wii in Japan.
Big unreleased 3rd party offerings for the year include:
RE 4 Wii - July 5
Dragon Quest: Swords July 12
RE: Umbrella Chronicles - Aug 1
Opoona - Sept 5
Treasure Island Z - Sept 19
Nights - October 1
DDR Wii - October 12
Here is how I would split the games into categories:
- Casual, easy to pick up 2-4 player traditional games
- 1 player, fairly tough to pick up traditional games with wide appeal
- Niche gamer games that are 1-4 players
- Non games that appeal to non-gamers, but may sell to gamers as well..
Casual gamer games: Mario Party 8, Mario Strikers, Bongo Blast, Brawl, Mario & Sonic, DDR
Niche gamer games: Nights, Batallion Wars, Metroid Prime 3, Forever Blue, Disaster: Day of Crisis
1 Player/wide appeal: Galaxy, RE, RE4 Wii, DQ: Swords, Opoona, Treasure Island
Non games: Wii Health, Wii Music
Here is how I expect sales to break down by category (for big games)...
Non games: 1 million+ in sales over the lifetime of Wii in Japan (Wii Sports, Wii Play, Wii Music, Wii Health).
Casual gamer games: 350,000 to 2 million in sales over lifetime of Wii in Japan (Brawl, Mario Party 8).
1 Player/wide appeal: 200,000 to 1.5 million in sales over lifetime of Wii in Japan (Super Mario Galaxy).
Niche gamer games: 100,000 to 600,000 in sales over lifetime of Wii in Japan (Fire Emblem, Zelda).
For the 20 'big' games of 2007 (Japan) I have listed above, here is how I think they will rank in overall sales (when each has stopped selling completely):
1) Wii Music - 3,450,000
2) Wii Health - 3,230,000
3) Brawl - 1,400,000
4) Galaxy - 1,250,000
5) Strikers - 1,100,000
6) Mario Party 8 - 880,000
7) DQ: Swords - 600,000
8) Mario & Sonic 550,000
9) Bongo Blast 530,000
10) DDR Wii 518,000
11) RE: Umbrella Chronicles 500,000
12) Opoona 473,000
13) Treasure Island 430,000
14) Nights 400,000
15) RE4 365,000
16) Project H.A.M.M.E.R 300,000
17) Forever Blue 235,000
18) Diasaster: Day of Crisis 210,000
19) Batallion Wars 120,000
20) Metroid Prime 3 110,000
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
