15 exclusives. They never said 1st party, implying its a nice mix of in-house and 3rd party.

Ok, I have been hearing different things on the matter.  if that is the case we already know some of them
 
Quantum Break (new IP)
Forza 5
Ryse (New IP)

So 6 new Ip's to go and 6 old franchises.  One will be a Rare franchise and another will be Halo is my guess.  Lionhead is working on two titles so I think one may be Fable and the other is a new Ip.  I think we will get the new IP before Fable 4.

I'm expecting ~10-11 Kinect+XBLA titles and ~4-5 core titles. Out of the 8 new IPs, I'm expecting 2 to be from core games, and 6 from Kinect+XBLA.

From what I remember they said that there have never been more games in development at Microsoft at the same time.
But I also remember that they said 15 exclusives during the first year and I don't think that MS would release all 1st party games within the first 12 months. They wouldn't have anything else to release during 2015, so yeah I think it's "just" 15 exclusives.

Though I'm sure that they only count the 3rd party launch window games and their 1st party games. There could be more (Kinect related 3rd party games) and especially XBLA kind games that aren't included in that number.

Remember that there are 15 titles "in the consoles 1st year". Thats Nov 2013 to 2014. So it will be interetsing to see which ones get saved for year 2.

Thanks.  I know they have 26 games in development under 1st party studios so I was curious.  Glad it will involve third party though, that way there wont be any droughts through out the years.

i think it will be an even balance between hardcore, and kinect games.

I think new IP's are more important in the first year, especially since there is a low install base.  Big franchises do best in the third year.  Fable would be great in the 2nd year, and if Halo is coming the 1st year it is likely Halo 2 Anniversary.  Halo 5 will wait until the third year.  I dont think they will have Halo 5 finished in two years from halo 4.  So that would make the 3 biggest franchises all in seperate years.  Forza year 1, Fable year 2. and halo 5 year 3.

There is a problem with your alls bet.  Just because 70% may be using kinect, doesn't mean they are kinect only games.  Example being Forza.  You use a controller but can use kinect along with a controller.  Same applies to Ryse.  And if Killer Instinct in fact comes out I think it too will allow both Kinect and Controller.  They will be giving options for both it appears.

Well it is already confirmed that they aren't.  Ryse, Forza, and Quantum Break are all games that use a controller.  Pretty safe bet that at least one game is not kinect only so it would be a dumb bet to take.