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Forums - Sales Discussion - COMG! Japan Pre-order Chart Thread - Daily updates!

WC4Life said:
Edwardooo said:
MGS5 will bomb hard if compared to MGS4.


I dunno...I was sure this was the case, looks like there is more to this. First thing, I think MGS4 points are badly misleading.

MGS4 481k/671p = 0,717 ratio

DQH PS3 322k/361p = 0,892 ratio

DQH PS4 265k/207p = 1,280 ratio

Bloodborne 152k/174p = 0,874 ratio (supply problems, good digital sales, ratio is actually way better)

Witcher 3 67k/63p = 1,063 ratio

 

I selected some of the bigger releases for PS4 and you can see instantly, the ratio is constantly higher in 2015. PS4 games in general have very good ratio. Every game released in 2015 should also have some digital sales which again improve ratio even more. MGS4 had a bad ratio and thus very misleading. MGSV PS4 is now slightly ahead of DQH PS4, if MGSV PS4 manages to keep the same %-difference it will end up with 227p. MGSV PS3 would end up with 97p. Now let's apply these estimated points to DQH ratios.

estimated MGSV PS3 97p x 0,892 = 87k

estimated MGSV PS4 227p x 1,280 = 291k

Total retail estimate for MGSV = 378k

Add digital sales to 378k and it is looking much closer to 481k MGS4 sales. I think MGSV PS4 will do better than 227p and PS3 possibly little less than 97p. I feel MGSV has a shot to tie with MGS4 sales even if it "seems" really bad right now. I used VGC-data and there is some rounding here and there.

More support for your argument this week. Batman AK ended with 24p and made 48.8k.



hoggin' all the action, I see...

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katakpisang said:
Clyde32 said:

The one you just mentioned. Fujioka does the mainline games. 


but portable series is pretty much the same as mainline series except this time mainline monster hunter are not on console but on handheld  

so basically mh1-mh2-mh3-mh4 = main team /  p1st-p2nd-p3rd-p4th(mhx) = portable team , monster hunter X is not spin off but actually the spiritual successor to portable series which is the same or bigger than mainline (console) series .


We clearly have different definitions on spin-offs. A spin-off is a game that is not among the main line series. I'm not comparing the game to Monster Hunter stories or diary



I fully expect Super Mario Maker to either set Japan on fire or be greeted huge sigh of 'meh.'
I refuse to accept any other outcome.



Clyde32 said:
katakpisang said:


but portable series is pretty much the same as mainline series except this time mainline monster hunter are not on console but on handheld  

so basically mh1-mh2-mh3-mh4 = main team /  p1st-p2nd-p3rd-p4th(mhx) = portable team , monster hunter X is not spin off but actually the spiritual successor to portable series which is the same or bigger than mainline (console) series .


We clearly have different definitions on spin-offs. A spin-off is a game that is not among the main line series. I'm not comparing the game to Monster Hunter stories or diary

i know what you mean but the entire monster hunter development team consider mhx as a mainline series and the reason x are not numbered title because the changes is not big enough to warrant it to be the next numbered and mhx still retain the most important mh4 mechanics with new playstyle and skills .

ichinose is the director this time so it's safe to assume mhx=mhp4th , if any monster hunter done by fujioka(main) and ichinose(portable) that are mainline and not spin-off



Wiggy said:

More support for your argument this week. Batman AK ended with 24p and made 48.8k.


Batman has amazing ratio but I feel it is a bit too small title points/sales wise for comparison and late Bloodborne addition helped the bundle also. To get more "true" ratio, substract MC PS4 hardware from batman sales and you still get ratio over 1. Witcher 3 points/sales are roughly the lowest I would use for proof. Also I would not use anything released prior Dragon Quest Heroes since that game had such a big impact on Japan PS4 install base. I counted some ratios for other titles released in 2015 after DQH.

Yakuza 0 PS4 94k/83p = 1,13 ratio

FFType-0 PS4 92k/70p = 1,31

BF Hardline PS4 68k/63k = 1,08

So a ratio of over 1 is pretty safe estimate when PS4 game gets over 60p.



I cannot imagine toilet-free life.

Kebabs have a unique attribute compared to other consumables. To unlock this effect you need to wolf down a big ass kebab really fast, like under 10 minutes or so and wait for the effect to kick in. If done correctly your movements should feel unbelievably heavy to the point where you literally cannot move at all.

-Downtown Alanya Kebab magazine issue no.198

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WC4Life said:

  late Bloodborne addition helped the bundle also. 

What do you mean? Bloodborne helped the bloodborne bundle?

 

WC4Life said:

BF Hardline PS4 68k/63k = 1,08

I forgot this opened that high. Makes me think Star Wars: Battlefront might do pretty well in Japan, condsidering how popular Star Wars is there.



hoggin' all the action, I see...

Wiggy said:

WC4Life said:

  late Bloodborne addition helped the bundle also. 

What do you mean? Bloodborne helped the bloodborne bundle?

 

I forgot this opened that high. Makes me think Star Wars: Battlefront might do pretty well in Japan, condsidering how popular Star Wars is there.

Bloodborne is given free for all new PS4 buyers. This promotion started just before Batman released so it must have driven Batman bundle sales at least a little and this weeks PS4 HW numbers are a proof of that.

Western games have managed to gain a lot of ground and I think GTAV PS3 might have started it.



I cannot imagine toilet-free life.

Kebabs have a unique attribute compared to other consumables. To unlock this effect you need to wolf down a big ass kebab really fast, like under 10 minutes or so and wait for the effect to kick in. If done correctly your movements should feel unbelievably heavy to the point where you literally cannot move at all.

-Downtown Alanya Kebab magazine issue no.198

WC4Life said:

 This promotion started just before Batman released so it must have driven Batman bundle sales at least a little and this weeks PS4 HW numbers are a proof of that.

 

 

Oh, I dont think Japan got the Batman Bundle. It was Europe and NA (I thought so, anyway ¯\\\_(ツ)_/¯).

hoggin' all the action, I see...

Wiggy said:

 

Oh, I dont think Japan got the Batman Bundle. It was Europe and NA (I thought so, anyway ¯_(ツ)_/¯).

 


In that case Batman ratio really is over 2 on its own since Bloodborne promotion didn't have any effect on it. Suprising for Sony to screw over Japan like that...



I cannot imagine toilet-free life.

Kebabs have a unique attribute compared to other consumables. To unlock this effect you need to wolf down a big ass kebab really fast, like under 10 minutes or so and wait for the effect to kick in. If done correctly your movements should feel unbelievably heavy to the point where you literally cannot move at all.

-Downtown Alanya Kebab magazine issue no.198

Where aaaaareee you, Boutros??