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Forums - Sales Discussion - COMG! Japan Pre-order Chart Thread - Daily updates!

Troll_Whisperer on 24 June 2013

Best COMG day I've ever seen.

Also, nice for TLOU.



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Michael-5 on 24 June 2013
Pavolink said:
Wow, Pkm3 is really going to flop hard.

I dunno, I hope not. Not many people own a Wii U, so I would imagine sales being a bit stronger then the number of pre-orders.



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EricFabian on 24 June 2013
BlowoverKing said:
Come on Toukiden get to 150!!!


I have to say that I never imagine a new IP on Vita doing more than 100pts! I can see Toukiden end with 125~130pts now



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DemoniOtaku on 24 June 2013
Kresnik said:
Bloody hell Toukiden, nice! If Gundam Breaker Vita had been releasing the same time as PS3 version like it was supposed to, next week would actually have been really good for Vita titles!

Although saying that, I have a sneaking suspicion that Toukiden will do better on here than in real world sales. I think COMG is attuned towards Monster Hunter more than the rest of Japan (Portable 3rd 5k > 2 million) so perhaps it's trickling over to other titles too. I hope I'm wrong though; and the fact that Toukiden has a hardware bundle as well should make this a 100k+ FW game, which only Soul Sac; Persona & Miku have achieved so far.

Aside from that, plenty to love in this update. Monster Hunter still going strong; crazy day for Gundam; Pikmin finally picking up steam and E-D-F! E-D-F!

Also lol, two people moved their pre-orders from one version of BlazBlue to another :P

Weekly bringing lots of nice too. Looking increasingly likely that TLOU is gonna hit that 100k first week. Not quite as strong for Neptunia, but still 43 points which is miles better than Monpiece/HSS did. Hopefully it manages a decent FW to keep up with the PS3 versions; which in all honesty never sold that well in the first place.

Also, blimey, Terraria is still going really strong.

Gundam breaker on vita wasn't announced for later on the summer?



 

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Michael-5 on 24 June 2013
EricFabian said:
BlowoverKing said:
Come on Toukiden get to 150!!!


I have to say that I never imagine a new IP on Vita doing more than 100pts! I can see Toukiden end with 125~130pts now

It's at 119 points with 4 days to go. Gained 14 points yesterday, so it could get up to 170 points before it releases.

Heck the PSP version could break 100! I might get this for PSP if it localizes.



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outlawauron on 24 June 2013
gigantor21 said:
Farsala said:
Kresnik said:

Also lol, two people moved their pre-orders from one version of BlazBlue to another :P


And that is why I think 1 pt is one preorder at a comg store.

I can't imagine any individual store being big enough to have 1100+ physical copies of Monster Hunter at launch.

COMG is a chain of stores. It's a small chain though, only 9 stores I think...



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outlawauron on 24 June 2013
Michael-5 said:

So wait, if Monster Hunter is already over 1,000 pre-orders, and typically a nintendo game sells 500-800x during week 1, then does that mean true Japanese pre-orders are in the range of 500-800k already? It's it's adding 70 units a day, and has 83 more days to go, that's another 4,900 more pre-orders, and it;s likely that pre-orders will spike right before the game releases.

So with at least 6,000 pre-orders, maybe 8,000 on COMG, and 500-800x games sold per COMG pre-order, that's a minimum of 3 million games sold week 1, max 6 million....

wow, this could easily become the biggest game in the series. Great move switching to Nintendo, clearly this was keeping the PSP alive and is killing the Vita.

There's something wrong with your math here. Somewhere, because there's no way in hell it'll do 3 million week 1 and it's highly unlikely it'll pass the last PSP release.



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BlowoverKing on 24 June 2013
EricFabian said:
BlowoverKing said:
Come on Toukiden get to 150!!!


I have to say that I never imagine a new IP on Vita doing more than 100pts! I can see Toukiden end with 125~130pts now


Tbh I thought it was only going to get around 85 at first then things started to pick up and now 130 is a lock, tomorrow will tell if it can get to 150 or not.



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Michael-5 on 24 June 2013
outlawauron said:
Michael-5 said:

So wait, if Monster Hunter is already over 1,000 pre-orders, and typically a nintendo game sells 500-800x during week 1, then does that mean true Japanese pre-orders are in the range of 500-800k already? It's it's adding 70 units a day, and has 83 more days to go, that's another 4,900 more pre-orders, and it;s likely that pre-orders will spike right before the game releases.

So with at least 6,000 pre-orders, maybe 8,000 on COMG, and 500-800x games sold per COMG pre-order, that's a minimum of 3 million games sold week 1, max 6 million....

wow, this could easily become the biggest game in the series. Great move switching to Nintendo, clearly this was keeping the PSP alive and is killing the Vita.

There's something wrong with your math here. Somewhere, because there's no way in hell it'll do 3 million week 1 and it's highly unlikely it'll pass the last PSP release.

It added 66 units today didn't it? I rounded it to 70, but I also rounded the number of days left from 83 -> 80.

70*80 is 4,900. Plus the 1,100 it already has that's 6,000 COMG pre-orders.

This is pretty insane, but I'm looking at old daily changes to see it 66 was unusually high, and it's not......wait no! It is! The last week it added 74, 41, 35, 37, 32, 36, 75, 65....

So it looks like the game adds double the pre-orders on weekends. If it adds a more realistic 50 units a week average, that's 4,000 more COMG pre-orders, plus 1,100 it already has and that's 5,100. A max for growth would be more like 6,500 now.

So that means that Monster Hunter 4 could open to as little as 2.5 million, or as much as 5.0 million, depending on the extrapolation factor (500-800x number of week one sales) and which estimate for COMG you take. Either way, not bad, and this could end up above the PSP installments.

----

Where is Pokemon X/Y? Shouldn't it appear on the chart some point soon? It releases only 30 days after Monster Hunter.



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tbone51 on 24 June 2013
outlawauron said:
Michael-5 said:

So wait, if Monster Hunter is already over 1,000 pre-orders, and typically a nintendo game sells 500-800x during week 1, then does that mean true Japanese pre-orders are in the range of 500-800k already? It's it's adding 70 units a day, and has 83 more days to go, that's another 4,900 more pre-orders, and it;s likely that pre-orders will spike right before the game releases.

So with at least 6,000 pre-orders, maybe 8,000 on COMG, and 500-800x games sold per COMG pre-order, that's a minimum of 3 million games sold week 1, max 6 million....

wow, this could easily become the biggest game in the series. Great move switching to Nintendo, clearly this was keeping the PSP alive and is killing the Vita.

There's something wrong with your math here. Somewhere, because there's no way in hell it'll do 3 million week 1 and it's highly unlikely it'll pass the last PSP release.



i agree with it not doing that high (imo it do between 1.10mil-1.40mil FW with digital sales) but how is it highly unlikely to surpass the PSP installments?