Probably 2, new rare game, and I believe that zombie game is the black tusk dead space like shooter.

I'll agree with you that horror games dont tend to sell fantastic but ZombiU has also been the 3rd best selling game on the WiiU with 410k.  It still sells since it is one of the first games people pick up when they buy a WiiU.  This is also considering that ZombiU has hadmixed reviews and is a little different for the nintendo crowd who tends to not buy 3d party games annd more violent games.

Condemned on the other hand I don't ever think it had much appeal to a typical gamer where as Alan Wake has the story and atmosphere that draws people in. Alan Wake has sold 1.20m on the X360 and has shown it is critically acclaimed as well as users loving it as well.  It stands out from other horror games.  It is actually more of a Pschological Thriller anyways but my point is it has already sold well so I see this going one of two ways.  

1.  It could be really good and people who buy the NeXbox will buy Alan Wake with it for the 1st year and reach 1-2m through it's lifetime.

2.  It could be average and  end up around 400-800k.  

The Epic game is likely not exclusive, it's not even sure they will keep the Gears franchise exclusive, and the next game Epic makes is Fortnite.

And the 1st party games probably are: Forza Motorsport 5 from Turn 10 studios, the new Zombie game probably from Black Tusk Studios, and of course the Rare's IP.

Ryse and Alan Wake 2 is made by 2nd party Crytek and Remedy respectively. 

I'm not sure about PGR 5, because Bizarre Creation was bought and later closed by Activision, so if Microsoft want to revive the franchise, they should give it to one of their new studio. (By the way they have some! 8 or 9 new studio, and 5-6 of them made for core games, but I will look it up.)

Thanks guys for the clarification! Seems like a good launch line up!

LOL, people keep saying this because they wish it to be true, MS and Epic have had a good and lucritive relationship since xbox 1, it's not going to stop now.

Edit:  PGR5 is being made by lucid, they are the remnants BC, they are working on it in conjunction with Playground games and Rare. MS has now 21 first party studios (sony has 14 total), 13-14 are dedicated to core games, the rest do both, casual and/or kinect titles.

Lionhead (Fable IV?), 343 industries (Halo 5), MS Victoria (new IP) and MS Redmond (BioShock Infinite guys) would be the next big wave of first party content. Combined with some smaller titles from TwistedPixel and PressPlay.

Let's wait and see how epics new game turns out. A lot of people left the company recently so who knows what will happen.

You know, I said "likely" because the only thing we know right now, is that Epic leaves money on the table, with every Gears game released. Of course, Microsoft can pay them to keep it exclusive. I'm sure People Can Fly would serve as a great developer for the Gears series in the future, and Epic can grab a lot of money from Microsoft. But Epic is in it to sell its engine. They'll have to showcase it, so their next game will come out on every platform, where UE4 is. They have a good chunk of studios by now, so infact they are able to make two games simultaneously and we do know about Fortnite, that's why I assume, that It's just that, and because People Can Fly just finished Gears of War: Judgement. I don't see them revealing another one, so it's either Fortnite or Unreal Tournament 4. Both would be multiplatform.

You're right, they will have 1st party content! But I was talking about the games listed above. Microsoft has far bigger 1st party now, than they used to have. Don't need to get defensive so quickly.

Epic is a different story.

Another game rumored for the Durango is Gears of War: Tactics http://www.vgleaks.com/gears-of-war-tactics-first-screens-alpha-work/