BioWare co-founder Dr. Greg Zeschuk, who left the company last year to pursue the next chapter in his career outside of the games industry, has painted a grim outlook for the console retail market.

Reflecting on the recent resignations of EA CEO John Riccitiello and Square Enix president Yoichi Wada, he told GamesIndustry.biz that he doesn't see new consoles having the impact on retail sales many are pinning their hopes on.

"We are in a kind of sick market for old-school gaming - the traditional retail-based gaming - and as much as EA has moved into digital, the boxed stuff is not as robust. While digital is coming up fast it's not filling in the gaps," he said.

"Also, right now, there is this sort of classic innovator's dilemma where we see a new market emerging, but it's not really that great - with the mobile business, certain people make a lot of money but on the whole it's not generating as much revenue as the console business.

"Everyone's kind of holding out hope for the new consoles, but I honestly don't think they're going to be that big a deal. I worry a lot that unless Microsoft or Sony pull something magically out of a hat, it's pretty much the same old, same old repackaged and I don't think they're going to change the dynamic of the retail market. I don't see how they can - the market is what it is."

Former EA man Zeschuk went on to highlight Activision as a rare success story in a troubled marketplace.

"Honestly, Activision and Blizzard have been doing really well, and they've been very disciplined and focused, but how long can they continue? They've been relying on a smaller number of titles, but no title works forever, and obviously they will be working hard to replace the games they're working on.

"So they're probably one of the shining examples of company that's done well by really doubling down on a very narrow amount of things, and trying some different stuff - I'm actually really impressed with Skylanders."

CVG

So what do you think? Will the next gen consoles revive the market or fall flat on its face.

Shut up and go make your beer, Greg. Leave luck to Kaz.

I largely agree with him. The market _IS_ changing, and those who refuse to notice it are fooling only themselves.

The dedicated console market is here to stay, but it will not have nearly the same amplitude as last gen.

Forecasts need to follow this trend and be reduced, otherwise we will see more THQs and Squares....

Well he's right, which is why the new consoles need to focus on appealing to casuals and act as an entertainment device as well cause consoles which just appeal to core gamers won't sell that much.

I don't about the others but Sony will save the console market this gen.

Great Kaz!!!

We'll be seeing a modest shrink in consoles and handhelds alike.

Honestly I think it's up to the Nextbox to either succeed in their strategy or crash and burn while trying. Nintendo can hold out this gen, but the gen after? Don't know. Sony needs a hit one way or another.

"I don't think they're going to change the dynamic of the retail market. I don't see how they can - the market is what it is."

Okay? I mean, how is that really an awful thing? Many, many successful markets have stayed virtually the same over time. I don't foresee Sony and Microsoft running into lifetime sales for the PS4 and 720 that are greatly reduced from the PS3 and 360. Nintendo will, yes, but that's because the Wii was an outlier, with Nintendo's realistic baseline for home consoles being much lower.

The PS2 grew the market by a ton and this generation followed up on that. I think home consoles are as mainstream as they can be, now. The growth will be elsewhere (with possible bubble bursts). I think the home console market will be fine through next gen.

I largely and honmestly disagree.

It's the curse of modern business. Growth is assumed. Slow growth means trouble. Stagnation means death, shrinkage means you've already been buried.