You either read my comparison, or know what you are talking about, or both.

Either way, you stole what I was gonna say.

Though I've found that, for the PS2 at least, it's biggest increase was from the 1st year to the 2nd year, while the 3rd year had a slight increase, then very small decreases the next 2 years, then the greater decreases start. Also, I noticed that Japan hardly sees any change at all. Between PS2 first year and PS2 4th year in Japan, the sales hovered around 3.5 million.

For non-dominate consoles, sales usually remain flat the first three years, then die fast. I don't see this as being the case for the PS3 and 360, so I expect increases (as the 360 has already seen 2nd year over 1st year), but not as big as the Wii, though the Wii might get stuck because of supply. Then I expect them to see fast decreases, but spread out over 3 or 4 years, instead of the normal 2 years.

I have a yearly sales prediction set up, but haven't finished it yet, so I won't bother posting it, but 6 years from launch, I have the 360 at 42 million, the PS3 at 51 million, and the Wii at 106 million. The PS2 after 6 years was at 100 million, for comparison. This yearly prediction takes into account that not more than 21 million Wiis can be sold in any given year. Now obviously, if the "blue-ocean" is much bigger than any of expect, Nintendo might jump production to upwards of 2.5 million that really throws the prediction off, simply because that shows there is more demand than we figure right now. For comparison, the PS2 sold 20 million units in it's top year.

Also note these are not "2007, 2008, 2009, etc" years, but years after launch. I.e.: 1 year for the Wii would be Nov to Nov.

We'll just have to see how large the market is, which I think we'll be able to say after this year, to really know for sure. 

Don't mean to be offense, but 100 million PS2 sold doesn't mean it has 100 million owners also. Remember, millions PS2 sold because people bought it twice to replace their first one that broke.

With durability in Nintendo systems, I don't think Wii can reach that number.

Hey, don't ban me. This is a fact, not a flame bait.

@Stever89

It's that I'm a very casual market analyst of the video game console market. I find economics and marketing to be fascinating, particularly in an industry like this one. The Wii's such a huge disurbance in the flow of the market that it's really caught my interest in terms of effective console marketing tactics.

@Deegan

You would be correct, if Nintendo's target market was the same as Sony's was with the PS2. But it's not, at all. The Wii's managed to sell to people who wouldn't even consider getting a PS2, or any video game console, for that matter. And it will continue to sell to those sorts until something takes its place in the eyes of this previously untapped (and practically untappable) market.

Too many people are underestimating just how deep the Blue ocean is, even this year won't reveal the Wii's true demand as even if Nitnedo passes 2.5 million production per month later this year it still won't meet demand

I quite agree, Avinash. Which is why my prediction is that the Wii will meet demand, at earliest, in 2009. Which will lead to the inevitable price drop to $200, adjusting demand once again to a high level. At which point the Wii will likely coast along on stellar sales for the rest of the year and into 2010 before things even remotely have a risk of tapering off again.

Really, the Wii's biggest problem won't emerge until late 2010 at earliest, assuming MS jumps the gun again and releases another system a year ahead of the norm (this one with motion controls and a new marketing campaign to branch out to a wider audience; MS is not known for ignoring the insanely successful tactics of the competition). And even that won't be able to do more than steal a little steam from the Wii juggernaught, from the most dedicated fans of console gaming at large, until around 2012 or so (by my estimate; that's around how long it took for the Genesis to really nab the NES's market advantage from Nintendo, and about how long it took for the PS1 to really dominate over the SNES).

 And I find business strategy and sales trends fascinating. Together, we are one! The Wii was what got me back into console gaming, and since I find sales trends interesting, I've done an analysis on it to help people understand the basics, though I've been working on updating the statistics, so one can just be bombarded with stats, like mean, variance, etc. All very fascinating. Friends?

@Avinash_Tyagi: The problem is we don't really know how big this market is. It could be 20 million people (which I feel is too few), it could be John Lucas' 250 million or whatever (though I feel that's a big high, for many reasons, mostly production limits). We just don't know. As such, at least for me, I have to go with what I can show, and that's past sales data, and also that production is topped at 21 million a year. That's why I am eagerly awaiting the end of this year, to know better what demand is like (which I believe will be tremendous, but I cant really prove that besides my gut), and to know how much (if any) Nintendo will raise production. This really is a fascinating year to watch sales.

On topic since I don't even know if I ever addressed it: I feel the Wii will eventually pass the PS2, simply because it'll be on the market for as long as the PS2 will/has/is/etc, and since I believe the Wii will outsell the PS2 each comparative year, the Wii will outsell the PS2.

I can't see this ever happening.

The Wii's lifespan will not be nearly as long as the PS2's. The Wii by design has sold very well out of the gate (appealing price point, appealing software and positive media coverage) but will not last like the ps2. This will be partly because it will not attain the landslide market share that the ps2 had (so it will have good software selection but not overwhelming support like the PS2) and partly because it is not bolstered by an emerging format (DVD).

Hmmm well if the Wii can sell really really well, then yes. It has to sell better then it is right now. The PS3 is at 123 million units sold. The Wii's life span will be 5 years, maby nore. but Nintendo must increase its production. It's shortages might be the reason it does not reach the ps2 plateau. But if all goes well in the future and they increase production. If they are able to keep Nintendomination going. I say yes it has a shot :D

I don't think we can know yet. We don't really know how big the size of the video game market is yet, since Nintendo is expanding it rapidly. Most of the world consists of non-video game players. If Nintendo even reaches a small part of that untapped world, they could put up very big numbers.

Like many, I think yes, more possibly by a large margin than just a little.

But I can't wait for JL's entrance into here