I also agree with your first two points, but as other people have said, I bought the U also for the gampad and love it, I find it comfortable and loved how it was utilised in zombi u and will look forward to other games in the future that use it to it's beat potential, the U will be fine, might sell the least consoles but will be a sucess to ninty in the end.

Those 3 things should be 1) Price 2) Games and 3) Marketing - with the 3rd one being the most important.

I'm expecting a price cut in November to coincide with the launches of a 3D Mario game and Mario Kart 8 in an attempt to scupper the launches of the PS4 and 720. The Wii U will have an installed userbase between 10m and 15m before the end of the year imo.

Yeah I agree with the OP but Gigantor2 has a very valid point, the Kinect 2.0 720 will likely be more appealing to casuals than a WiiU minus gamepad (and even at it's much cheaper price-point it'd have to compete directly with 360/Kinect at the same price).

Nintendo has really screwed themselves with the gamepad. A modified and enhanced wiimote with built in touch screen (small) would have been a much better idea and was in fact the original idea that spawned the gamepad. Why they went back to dual analog is beyond me. It was like admitting their own defeat at motion controls.

Really making some awesome game that need the gamepad in a fun and compelling (not shoehorned) way is they only way to save the WiiU from mediocore sales. And I just don't see it happening. What are they going to come up with that hasn't been done on DS/3DS/any touch screen device? A touchscreen was f---ing ancient (tech-wise) before release, and everything it can do is being done on other touch screen devices now. Worse, Galaxy S4 will allow you to play all your games on both your phone and TV with a dual analog/touch screen/motion controller. Infinitely cooler than a WiiU (and Ouya) for a huge host of reasons. No one needs a WiiU. It's existence isn't (yet) justified. And I'm a huge Wii fan.

Their best bet is scrapping WiiU ASAP and launching another more power, more innovative console post PS4/720 to be the best console for both core/casuals and make it a device that can play at home and on the road.

I don't agree on that last point TBH.

It'll piss all over the millions of people who did buy a WiiU. It's basically Nintendo saying "yeah, this was a bad idea, sorry for letting you waste hundreds of dollars on a failed product we didn't even have faith in." That would severely poison the company's relationship with their core fanbase, while people who were on the fence with the Wii U would be even more suspicious of the next console. That ill-will and mistrust would kneecap the next system's sales badly. I can't think of anything they could do with a new console that would make up for the marketing Pandora's box of shelving the Wii U too fast.

Whether or not it works out for them, Nintendo is pretty much stuck with the WiiU as-is, for the next 4 years at absolute minimum. 

History disproves your assumption.

Nintendo has already done this before and more harshly than what would happen with WiiU - Remember Vertual Boy?

2016 is likely the earliest Nintendo could launch a new console, 4 years from launch.  Xbox had a 4 year life which in no way hurt 360's sales.

In 2016 Nintendo could unleash a console/portable hybrid, close to par with PS4/720 (doesn't have to match just close enough to get all the games) and do very, very well.  They could make it even more powerful but the cost would hurt sales more than the slightly superior graphics would help.

Dude, this is the 3rd time today I read you talking about this stupid S4 feature. Trust me, this won't a factor. Nobody is going to use a phone instead of a console. This whole dual analog accessory will be a niche thing that nobody is going to care about, just like similar stuff for the iPhone.

I'm not disagreeing with you on that. 

Point is, 'core' gamers would get a PS3/360 over a WiiU(or PS4/720)  and any casual gamer who was interested in playing with a dual analog control/touch screen affair (niche - I agree) would be better served with competing devices like the Galaxy S4 (which will easily outsells WiiU's lifetime sales in a year) or Ouya or WikiPad or Razor or.....   The Gamepad isn't doing anything unique to differeniate the WiiU from other devices on the market which is hurting it's sales potential.   

Point is WiiU can't do a Wii Sports success story because it can't do anything truly unique like Wii did for four years (prior to Move/Kinect).

I dont think people are too stupid to understand what the Gamepad does, its just that nintendo needs to simplify and advertise it correctly.

People understand what it does.   But for non-gamers (that is the mass market that don't buy consoles but did buy Wii) find them very unintuitive, have no interest in having to learn the skills they require (if you've never used one, co-ordiating two analog sticks is for different purposes (move/aim) is not at all natural) nor relearning the controls (which button does what?) every time they go to play a game (every couple months, not every day).

Even though I have a 360, I still don't know which button is the X button without looking, which is a pain everything I have to hit it in a hurry in a game.  I just don't play on 360 very often to have them memorized like my kids do.  And I am a very 'core' example of a casual gamer.  You put a dual analog in my wife's hands and if the game uses more than two button's she's fricken lost.  But she'll play on Wii/iOS.

You mean they put out an improved version of Virtual Boy that went on to sell gangbusters? News to me.

And yeah, I specifically said 4 years minimum.