I think he's wrong about the Vita, it'll do better than 5 mil a year. I also think the 3DS will have years above 15 mil. Interesting comment about the XBox though.

Vita's main problem is that Sony is unwilling to give its handhelds top-tier developer support internally, and so they must rely on third parties. And while western third parties were willing to support the PSP fairly well early on (GTA Stories, notably), they completely abandoned it afterwards, and after the PSP really monopolized Japanese third party development in the latter part of the last handheld cycle, Nintendo got aggressive, meaning Sony can't get the handheld, JP third party support that carried them last time.

That's what ultimately makes the difference in the story of doomsaying about Wii U and Vita. Both have similar problems gathering third party support (for very different underlying reasons, however), but Nintendo's going to obviously give Wii U top first-party titles to snap it back to life (however far that manages to carry Wii U in reality). Sony's really not going to do that for the Vita.

As always, Pachter thinks that the US = The world. Its a common american mistake.

Japan is now starting to embrace the Vita. More software announcements are happening and the system is starting to see some more support. If those games are localised, more people will buy Vita's. Pachter's vicious cycle is only that he cant see past the american borders. The same thing happens with his analysis of Nintendo aswell.

Pachter is right on this one.
The Vita fails and please don't even try to deny it.
3DS won't be as successful as the DS.
Xbox turned into a media center for the living room and that is why it is as successful as it is.

He meant to say that the hand held market sucks because Nintendo owns it.

is Pachter.

That has to be the most accurate assessment of the situation I've read. Kudos to you Mr Khan.

"Developers aren't making games for it"

I have a bit of trouble with that, since developers actually are making games for it. A few months ago, I couldn't have argued, but right now we're hearing about a bunch in development and those that have come out on Vita have been pleased with sales. Right now, the PSP is really the device standing in the way of the Vita, as it's fighting for the same niche. It might take a little while longer to take over the PSP software market but I think the Vita is on its way out of the woods.

Now, before someone pops a vein, I'm not saying it's going to challenge the 3DS. The Vita is never going to be big in North America. However, in Japan, and possibly Europe, I think it can become a moderate success. I'm feeling more optimistic about it than I have in a long time.

You are precisely right, especially with the first part. The problem is that I totally support this, as do others. Handheld gaming is seen as a nice bonus, but Sony's mode is your home console in your pocket, whereas Nintendo tries to offer something different. This means that people don't immediately think "I wish I could play this on a big screen with a bigger controller" which I think is a big advantage for Nintendo

The influence of the PS4 might be key for the PS Vita. As you say, Sony aren't going to get ND to make their next big game on Vita, but they may make some side bits on for the Vita. 

But Sony can do several things to help the Vita easily, namely price of the console and memory, but can they really afford it?

The games problem is more complex, but getting those prices down will just help encourage developers

i agree that that is the main problem for the vita. however, there are other big problems for it as well