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Forums - Nintendo - Put a fork in the Wii U, it is done. [Sensible discussion only, no flaming]

Captain_Tom said:

-Welcome to 2013.  Here we play many games online.  If Nintendo doesn't figure this out, they will never get third parties to give a d@mn.


You don't need to answer this, but, the truth is that I could play many games online in 2000. 



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- And? Did that stopped the Wii, DS, 3DS to sell software? Is it now 1GB, the double of this generation consoles, not enought to run games?

No it isn't enough.  That means some how the video card has probably 384MB for textures, and the sytem uses 768MB.  The PS3 has 256MB on the GPU for textures, so the difference in texture quality between the two consoles isn't worth the effort.  Then yes the Wii U has 3x the system RAM, but it is also about a third as fast so no real difference there either.

- You are saying in the first point that nobody is going to go to Nintendo's online offer because players are not going to leave PSN or Xboxlive and in my last post I'm saying they don't have to leave those to invest in a new one. Have gamers some kind of problem with free online?

No they don't, they own a PS3 or PC.  Also those platforms have standards (Steam/PSN voice chat, messaging, patch delivery systems) that Nintendo just leaves up to developers to add to each game they make.  It is about as advanced as the PSP (A 9 year old system).  

Also most people don't own multiple consoles if that is what you are trying to say.





RazorDragon said:
Captain_Tom said:

-Welcome to 2013.  Here we play many games online.  If Nintendo doesn't figure this out, they will never get third parties to give a d@mn.


You don't need to answer this, but, the truth is that I could play many games online in 2000. 

Yep, and Nintendo still hasn't figured this out.  They are basically in the year 2000:  Online exists, but it isn't supported well and there are no standards.



Akvod said:
Final-Fan said:

1.  (a)  I don't care about Pachter's degrees, no appeal to authority fallacies from you please, especially when his ACTUAL area of expertise is stock analysis.  And even there his degree of expertise is pretty debatable from what I've heard.  But let me ask it this way:  Pachter is saying that Nintendo was selling a $150-costing console for $250.  That might have been understandable while there were shortages.  They'd just be throwing away money by charging less when they can't sell more units.  But what about later on?  Surely they'd have been able to drop the price more than they exhibited to keep Wii sales high?  Even now the Wii is selling for $130 -- a mere $20 less than its production cost was SEVEN YEARS AGO according to Pachter.  Surely, what with the universal falling cost of manufacture that consoles experience, Nintendo could afford to cut the price farther to prop up flagging sales if Pachter's estimate was true, don't you think?  Or is the Wii unique among consoles in having a rock hard cost of manufacturing that has barely decreased through an entire console generation? 

Perhaps more importantly -- if they really were making $100 per Wii from launch, where the hell do you and Pachter get off saying that Nintendo hardware is unprofitable?  I mean that's an INSANE amount of profit they must have been making!  Shit, they must be refusing to lower the price just because of the scads of money they're raking in just on the boxes themselves! 

(b)  What are you basing that opinion about peripherals on?  Regardless, they will still sell many tens of millions of controllers. 

2.  (a)  It's hard to say how much Nintendo franchises benefit from the hardware control I spoke of.  But I would argue that in the long run, it is more beneficial to keep the franchise strong than to pursue the short term gains of going multiplatform, only to see your franchise suffer and see declining sales because of declining quality, rather than continuing strongly into the future.  In this scenario, in exchange for a smaller market they gain reliable customer support.  Look at Sonic. 

(b)  If I were to speculate, I would say that the difference between having to support a console, but not having to pay royalties and also receiving royalties from third parties (which believe it or not do exist on Nintendo consoles), may or may not be equal to not having to support a console, but having to pay royalties, but having access to a greater market; but that when you take into account not only the hardware factor I refer to elsewhere (and possible franchise degradation if hardware control is lost) but also brand unity/recognition, it is at least equal. 

(c.)  Au contraire, the point of "propping up" a console is discussed in great detail.  You can argue whether it is fully justified given the alternatives, but to claim there's "no point" is just false. 

3.  Aside from the effect it had on existing franchises (and I'd remind you of Super Mario 64 and the analog stick, which acknowledging that there are people like RolStoppable who would argue that that was also detrimental to the franchise), it gives Nintendo opportunities to do NEW things like Wii Sports, WSR, and the Trauma Center series which (as a non-player, I understand) relies on touchscreen or Wii Remote drawing for its gameplay.  Making new franchises as well as continuing old ones is, I'm sure you will agree, essential to the health of a software company. 

1)  You haven't even proven that the Nintendo hardware and hardware-based business is unprofitable.  Aside from that, I will concede that if you are only analyzing the hardware for the hardware's sake, then it isn't relevant to that analysis how much the hardware helps the software. 

2)  On the other hand, I think it's quite a remarkable claim to say that "Dictating hardware-->better software" has no relevance to Nintendo's software business.  I mean frankly that's a completely ridiculous statement.  What I suppose you mean is that the quality argument is trumped by the quantity argument of being able to release across two platforms (not three, unless you forsee a new entrant into the market).  But IMO that is a shortsighted outlook because over time series of inferior quality dwindle and fade away, if not disappear entirely. 

4.  In conclusion, simple logic isn't necessarily correct logic.  And I have better things to do than to do 100% of the factfinding while you don't have the same burden, especially when you (and Pachter) are the ones making the claim in the first place that Nintendo would be smarter to abandon their hardware business.  The burden of proof is on you IMO. 

1.  (a)  Stock analysis requires you to understand the company's business you know? What exactly do you think stock analysis entails?  Also, lol "appeal to authority fallacies". Did you just read Wikipedia's article on logical fallacies or something?

Point is, is that Pachter actually reads 10-k's and other, exclusive, sources of information and talks to management as well as journalists. He's a fucking expert, and I find it hard to believe that he's just pulling numbers out of his ass.  On the other hand you just make claims while even admitting yourself that you have "no data".  Knowledge isn't a perfect or surefire thing. Given the limitations, I'm going to believe Pachter over you.

[As for the Wii's mfg. costs], dunno. Can't really say anything about the costs at this point in the generation, since I have no knowledge about that.

But as for not cutting the prices: 1) A few years ago, when the Wii was still selling a lot, it would have been stupid to cut prices and lower MARGIN. 2) The price they have now could be based on a number of stuff. They might have an idea of what the current demand of Wii is, and determined that the current cost maximizes profit (which is a function of volume and margin). It might be that costs can't be lowered anymore.

I'm not really sure where exactly you're going with this though.

(b)  From what I've seen, Nintendo has mainly been marketing the WiiU as 1 GamePad+a bunch of Wii motes. Going off of what seems to be Nintendo's marketing (and therefore, business strategy), I just don't see Wii motes being sold as much, given that current Wii owners should already have some.

Maybe they'll sell the GamePads? I don't own a WiiU so I'm not sure if there's support for multiple GamePads (are they even being sold individually)? But it just doesn't seem like something that'll have a lot of volume in terms of sales (or appeal).

2.  (a)  I think the Sonic brand really didn't fail as a result of a lack of exclusive hardware, but just poor quality software.

(b)  Christ that's a long sentence (also a lot of "buts"). Sorry, I didn't really follow what you wrote there.

3.  Sure, but does that really get people to pay a premium for the console? WiiU seems to show that people aren't. Is it worth having those controls if that means that you can only sell to one platform? It just doesn't really make sense for a hardware or software point of view.

1) 

2) 

4.  Watch the video again. Don't stop inbetween it. Just take a deep breath, and understand that he's just about business. You could say that Nintendo's more focused on "quality" or "artistic integrity" or something like that. But Pachter's points are simple.

Nintendo's not making enough money on hardware, Nintendo could make more money on software.

1.  (a)  Disregarding your worthless personal attack, I would like to take this moment to challenge you on Pachter's claim that Nintendo made $100 profit on Wiis at launch.  Please find one scrap of evidence or reputable source corroborating this claim.  My point about the Wii's current price is that it is only down to $130, and the Wii's sales are seriously flagging.  I think it's reasonable to claim that if Nintendo could boost Wii sales by dropping the price they would do so; they aren't; therefore they can't.  And I think it is a very dubious position to hold that the Wii's cost of production was $150 seven years ago and has dropped so little that Nintendo feels it can't afford to charge less than $130 for it now. 

For a more concrete rebuttal of the claim, here's a 2008 destructoid article claiming the Wii made $6 profit per unit, and a contemporary article giving the MSRP of the Wii as still $250.  Now unless I have made some sort of error in identifying these articles, it looks to me like you have a choice between taking Pachter's word over that of Destructoid and Forbes, or believing the Wii got MORE expensive to produce, or admitting Pachter is full of shit. 

2.  (a)  I was referring to Sonic having a decrease in quality, reputation, and sales -- a fate Nintendo would obviously wish to avoid for its own flagship titles. 

(b)  Sigh.  Let me try again, using some mathematical grammar instead -- using parentheses to help identify where clauses begin and end.  "I would say that (having to support a console, but not having to pay royalties, while also receiving royalties from third parties) may or may not be equal in direct cost/benefit to (not having to support a console, but having to pay royalties to the console makers whose systems they publish on, with the compensation that the other consoles make up a larger market than the old Nintendo console market); but that when you take into account indirect effects like the hardware factor I refer to elsewhere (and possible franchise degradation if hardware control is lost) and also brand unity/recognition, it is at least equal and very probably better to maintain a hardware presence.

(And I'd also like to note that the royalties calculation should also include all of what they get through their online offerings -- eShop etc.  This is a substantial revenue source available to the console makers, whose full potential has not been explored, which they would obviously lose out on by dropping out of the console market.) 

3.  It does make sense if it helps keep the franchises going strong forever as well as create new ones.  You need to argue that the legendary strength of Nintendo's flagship franchises is completely unrelated to its control over its hardware.  I await your arguments on that point. 

2)  You didn't respond to this one at all, but that's OK, just fold it into the main point 3. above. 

4.  I did watch the whole thing.  Firstly, as long as Nintendo is making money on hardware, I don't see why they should give up a small profit just because it isn't a huge profit.  Secondly, I think Nintendo's software business benefits from its hardware business, so dropping the hardware to focus on software could well be counterproductive.  Pachter talks about the ridiculous pile of money Nintendo is sitting on while being very dismissive of its ability to continue to profit, which IMO is a pessimism that has yet to be justified.  Stop embedding that video.  I'VE WATCHED IT.  I understood the words he was saying the first time around, thanks.  Watching it ten more times isn't going to change my mind.  Simple doesn't mean correct. 



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snowdog said:
AnthonyW86 said:

I'm just going to quote myself from another topic here:

''And then there's one MAJOR dissadvantage from what i fear will become a huge problem for the Wii-U: It's CPU architecture. Both PS4 and the next xbox will use the X86, and so does the PC on wich every game is developed basically. This means that once PS3 en X360 are going to start losing developer support Wii-U will be the only major system using IBM Power-PC architecture. Now tell me, how many developers do you think will bother to invest alot of time and money to port their games to a completely new architecture, having to downscale and reoptimize everything in the process because Wii-U is far less powerfull, just to port that game to one system with a mediocre install base? And also knowing that most of they're previous games didn't sell well on it's predecessors?The Wii-U will(and already is) losing developer support faster than it is gaining any. And looking at it's game release schedule it doesn't have much support to lose anymore.''

So in my opinion there's little hope the Wii-U will ever have a large amount of major games release for it, except for Nintendo's franchises. Now i would consider buying one for those Nintendo titles alone, but only for $100-$150 and as an extra system aside a PS4 or new Xbox.(and only after those titles are released).

Nintendo needs to take a step back from trying to innovate to much on the hardware and controll front and get back at creating great new games. We haven't seen a new big Nintendo franchise/universe in 15 years.



Greenhill's MULTI IDE will stop that from being an issue. And all 3 consoles will have a similar architecture this gen passing floating point work to the GPU rather than the CPU. Developers are going to find it a great deal easier porting between the Wii U/PS4/720 than they are at the moment between the Wii U/PS3/360.

The Wii U won't have any problems getting ports of popular franchises this gen, albeit with a graphical downgrade - and the average man on the street probably won't be able to tell the difference between versions without seeing a side by side comparison. Think PC Medium settings vs Very High settings.

Sorry but i'l have to disagree with you on this. Porting from X360 to Wii-U should be super easy, since it uses the same cpu architecture, the same gpu architecture and has more ram. The only limitation would be that the cpu is a bit slower, but they won't really have to rewrite anything.It's also the reason why we see some old games being ported to Wii-U right now.

The difference between Wii-U and PS4 might be smaller than PS3 and Wii but i think it is still to big. So large in fact, that they will basically have to do a whole new version just for the Wii-U(again, only once the game doesn't release on X360/ps3). The biggest problem will be physics calculations i think and how much that will be part off the gameplay. Think Batllefield 3 destruction off cover etc. but than times 10. Sony already mentioned that the gpu will be extensively used for physics, and that's something that isn't even really done in PC games right now(Nvidia Physx gives alot of great effects for example but it doesn't influence the gameplay directly). Knack on PS4 is already showing this.

Basically if Wii-U can't do Physx like PS4/next xbox/pc can then it won't be the same game.



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mutantclown said:

Since not many people noticed the Wii U is a totally new Nintendo console, if I were Nintendo I would prepare a total re-launch this fall to fight the arrival of the next-gen consoles. I would re-brand the console "Nintendo Ultra" redesign it with an internal HDD, optical audio output, 5.1 dolby/DTS support and ethernet, USB 3.0. I would make a serious effort and investment to make the Nintendo Network faster and better in every way. I would also make sure to have a new 3D Mario for the re-launch. The prices would stay the same, $300 and $350, HDD capacity matching the ones offered by the competition. I would phase out Wii U, and re-brand and re-release the existing Wii U library as Nintendo Ultra games. It seems desperate, but I think it's better than cutting the prices. Let's face it, the Wii U has a serious branding and positioning problem, cutting the price won't help it and some new games won't be enough in the long run.


did anything like that drastic ever happen in the video game industry before?



bananaking21 said:
mutantclown said:

Since not many people noticed the Wii U is a totally new Nintendo console, if I were Nintendo I would prepare a total re-launch this fall to fight the arrival of the next-gen consoles. I would re-brand the console "Nintendo Ultra" redesign it with an internal HDD, optical audio output, 5.1 dolby/DTS support and ethernet, USB 3.0. I would make a serious effort and investment to make the Nintendo Network faster and better in every way. I would also make sure to have a new 3D Mario for the re-launch. The prices would stay the same, $300 and $350, HDD capacity matching the ones offered by the competition. I would phase out Wii U, and re-brand and re-release the existing Wii U library as Nintendo Ultra games. It seems desperate, but I think it's better than cutting the prices. Let's face it, the Wii U has a serious branding and positioning problem, cutting the price won't help it and some new games won't be enough in the long run.


did anything like that drastic ever happen in the video game industry before?



Ps3 slim would be the only thing close. However, Ps3 wasn't as bad off as the Wii U is.



OP makes valid points...

It's a shame everyone gets on the biased defensive protection mode.

Get a grip!



fillet said:
OP makes valid points...

It's a shame everyone gets on the biased defensive protection mode.

Get a grip!

Ya know, I've been combating people who have been saying ps4 and 720 wwill be worse and people who are saying wii u will triple sales overnight that I never read the op.... and now that I have I agree with you. Though OP could have worked on his presentation. I got just as much flak when I made a thread that put the wii us sales and how low they were into perspective



Max King of the Wild said:
bananaking21 said:
mutantclown said:

Since not many people noticed the Wii U is a totally new Nintendo console, if I were Nintendo I would prepare a total re-launch this fall to fight the arrival of the next-gen consoles. I would re-brand the console "Nintendo Ultra" redesign it with an internal HDD, optical audio output, 5.1 dolby/DTS support and ethernet, USB 3.0. I would make a serious effort and investment to make the Nintendo Network faster and better in every way. I would also make sure to have a new 3D Mario for the re-launch. The prices would stay the same, $300 and $350, HDD capacity matching the ones offered by the competition. I would phase out Wii U, and re-brand and re-release the existing Wii U library as Nintendo Ultra games. It seems desperate, but I think it's better than cutting the prices. Let's face it, the Wii U has a serious branding and positioning problem, cutting the price won't help it and some new games won't be enough in the long run.


did anything like that drastic ever happen in the video game industry before?



Ps3 slim would be the only thing close. However, Ps3 wasn't as bad off as the Wii U is.

but they didnt rebrand the console with the ps3 slim. they gave it a new model gave it a strong software release schedule and a new marketing campaign. its no where near drastic mutanclown suggested