That's still just one game. What's happening in the West is a lifestyle change trend entirely ... smartphones and tablets have simply changed the game. 

The reason in Japan its different is because Japanese gamers are quite happy to have handhelds replace their home consoles entirely, something that will likely never take in the West. We like our 50 inch TVs and big comfy couches too much over here. 

Wii U has nintendo 1st party magic behind it.

Vita in the other hand is like a ghost town support wise from 3rds and sony...

The Nintendo Direct announcements were an act of desparation.  Just about every single one of the games had no alpha footage whatsoever aside from Yarn Yoshi, one area with one monster on Xenoblade, and pictures of Wind  Waker.  Yarn Yoshi may be the one that's actually ready by the end of this year.  The rest may or may not be ready.  They might rush through them to get them ready in time for the holiday, but this is something I doubt Nintendo will do.  I don't think Nintendo would rush out there releases to get a sale, because if they do something like that, the lack of trust from their consumer base might plummet.  If you ask me, I think Nintendo did the same thing Sony did with the PS3.  They got cocky and came into this gen unprepared thinking third parties would develop for them because they did well last gen and that customers would purchase their product just because they're Nintendo.  I feel that this may have worked if people didn't feel so burned on the Wii with a severe lack of support, as Nintendo would have had a whole bunch of casual gamers brought into gaming solely because of the Wii buying the Wii U.

Dragon Quest 10 won't push very many consoles in Japan, but Final Fantasy 10 and 10-2 will.  Not only is FF10 not an MMO, but Japan loves their handhelds.  In Japan, the 3DS has currently passed the PS3 in sales and is close to overtaking the Wii.  Also Dragon Quest 10, a new IP sold half a million in seven months while Dragon Quest 7, a remake is already over a million and we're only a month and a half after release.  While the FF10 series is also on the PS3, it should move units because it's in addition to what the Vita already has available.  The same will more than likely happen in the US.  Dragon Queset 10 won't push US sales much since the series still isn't really that big in the US.   

Going by what's currently out and rumors of release dates this year, the Vita has more exclusives on both sides of the world.  It depends on what happens this holiday who's going to sell more.  If Nintendo gets multiple Mario titles with no price drop on the Vita in the west, then Nintendo has a chance.  It'll be close, but the Wii U has a good chance.  If the Vita gets a price drop in the west though, I think it'll go towards the Vita, Mario or not. 

Personally I take the complete opposite stance. If WiiU does indeed get the games that Soundwave listed, even without a price drop, it'll still likely beat the Vita + price drop. Couple the WiiU scenario with a price drop, however, and Vita doesn't stand a chance, IMO.

That's exactly how I feel about the dedicated handheld situation outside of Japan.

There was clearly still pent-up demand for the Vita there. It always had a shot to get back into contention there if Sony made the right moves. The price-cut alone wouldn't have had nearly the same effect if that wasn't the case. I don't see anything like that enthusiasm outside Japan, either from gamers or from developers.

Bioshock for the Vita is still in purgatory; there's been no mention of a Grand Theft Auto; Sony itself hasn't been pushing as hard as they could with the Vita like they did with the PSP and it's first party properties (No GOW? No GT?). In the West, FFX is the only game I can think of that might have the same sales draw as any of those, and we still don't even have a release date for that.

People have been talking shit about the Wii U, but as a Vita owner, I'm far more worried about Sony's handheld. There's still a market for consoles in the West; the 360 has sold just fine for years despite being a miserable failure in Japan. I don't know if that's true for dedicated handhelds here, though, and Japan alone won't carry the Vita while the 3DS is doing well too.

That's a MUCH bigger hurdle than being too expensive or not having enough killer software.

+1

Great post.

1.Are you really trying to claim the Wii U's sales dived worse than the Vita's lol? I suggest you go look at the first 6 weeks of both consoles sales after launch, and see how much your wrong about that. Vita week one sales in Japan were 325,000, the next week 74,000, and then drop even further to a low of 12,000 by feb.28th, 2012 , and a the pathern followed in the other regions. The Wii U's drop wasn't that bad as Vita because it maintined sales in the six figures until January  of 2013. Vita sold steadily after the bottom fell out of its sales after the first two weeks, and it only sold like 20,000 worldwide for most of the its first, the Wii U is doing better than that worldwide right now by about 10,000 each week, so its not quite how you say it is. Yes, Vita is rising now, but its because of the price cut, and not these games like you claim. Do you think these games are going to outsell Uncharted, or Persona 4 Golden? No, they won't.

2.No, I'm not angry, I'm just laughing at your assertion that these Vita games are going to sell the system so much better in the West. Speaking of Pikmin 3, its has release date in Japan for this spring, so that's not the distant future. Also, everything saying about when games will relase or if Nintendo will delay games, is just opinion as well. Most people pretty know what games are going to be annouced at E3, the new Smash Bros, the New Mario Kart, and the Mario Universe, which will crush the sales of any of those Vita games. Your glancing over the fact most of the Vita games are just waterdown console games with broken contorls, like the first Cod games, and the Resistance game,so those new ones arent likley to move many systems.  There are Wii U games besides MW3, like Lego City, and Need for Speed, and yes MW3 is a good game,because the quality of game has nothing to do with sales, look at Aliens:Colonial Marines or Duke Nukem Forever lol.

We're not really going to agree, but the reason I don't see the Wii U selling better if the Vita gets the price drop and the Wii U getting more than one of the announced games, is because the fanbase just isn't there.  Now Nintendo has their fanbase and then there are the hardcore gamers that are going to eventually purchase it, but the casual market that Nintendo drew in with the original Wii is no longer going to be there.  The casual market was interested in motion control because there wasn't any other system that you could do it on and it was unique(sort of,,) but this same non gaming customer base isn't going to be drawn to the Wii U regardless of how many Mario games are on the system.

The Vita actually has a chance at selling as the hardcore gamer isn't set on just Mario.  Not only do gamers have a chance to purchase the Wii U as a console, but also the PS4 and 360, so that right there would also be a deterrent and a portable would make more sense as the first to get over another console.  After spending $400 on a PS4 or NextBox, do you really think they want to spend another $300 on a Wii U when a Vita at $199 being a hand held and more exclusives might suit their needs better?  Doesn't mean they won't get a Wii U in the future, just means that at that time maybe one console is enough.

Another thing is that after reducing the price in Japan, developers seem to be announcing games left and right for the Vita, which is pretty surprising.  Most of these games actually cater to the niche RPG market.  Dragon's Crown has been announced a long time ago but has finally received a release date of July in Japan and August in the west.  Three Hyperdimension Neptunia titles, one a remake while two are new, and while I'd like for Compile Heart to stop making Vita games, I guess it adds to the library so eh, guess it's okay.  Atelier Totori and Meruru Plus, with Totori already having a release in the west for this year.  Ys4 remake, Valhalla Knights 3, Final Fantasy 10 HD, Final Fantasy 10-2 HD, and Muramasa Rebirth are also to be released this year.  The only ones that might not come out this year are the Neptunia games and Meruru in the west, but the rest have have pretty definite releases.  There are  also other games announced like Mind 0, and maybe others, but they have just like Hyperdimension Neptunia and the games announced on Nintendo Direct, they don't have release dates, so who knows when they're coming out.

If having Mario on the system was going to sell a massive amount of Wii Us, don't you think that there would be more Wii Us sold now?  It was a launch title afterall.  Super Smash Bros U though.  While it might not sell as much in the long run, I think it'll be the real system seller.  I think if the Wii U gets that this year the Wii U and Vita sales will be close, but Vita will still sell more.  Smash Bros fans and fighting game fans will pick it up.  It's probably the most fun fighter.

There is absolutely no way PS Vita stands a chance to sell more units than Wii U this year.

Of course, if that apocalyptic scenario for Nintendo ever happened, Wii U should immediately be discontinued.

What? hahaha, with 60K + 60K sales? Monster? oh wow. it's decent based on Vita's "coma" story, but it's very low compared to 3DS and ps3 pricecuts.

And today w/new media create and famitsu info we'll see how vita dropping in numbers.

Of course Wii U will sell more in 2013.