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Forums - Sales Discussion - ALL marioboys bought SMG and Wii? Or speculations made on SMG and SMS sales

CrazzyMan on 27 January 2008

@Gnizmo,

Name one game that has ever sold 10 million in 4 months. Just one game and I will think you have a point.

http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=Grand+Theft+Auto%3A+San+Andreas+-+PS2&reg2=All&game2=Super+Mario+Galaxy+-+Wii&reg3=All&game3=&weeks=16
6 mln. in first 4 month. +2 in rest time In USA.
atleast 4,5 mln. in first 4 month. +2 mln. in rest time in Europe.

@dtewi,
Those games never had a high attach ratio, mario does. He ALWAYS ranges from 25-40% (the platformer series at least).
That kinda interesting. But these were gamers, not non-gamers which probably will buy wii.
Super Mario 64 DS 5.61m, is like 7%. But ofcourse it`s a handheld, which also have a lot of casual non-gamers.



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

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Sqrl on 27 January 2008
gebx said:

 lmao, nice~

Although the SMG line (blue) will start to flatten out as time goes on obviously.  With that said the next piece is to understand that gamecube sales were the reason for the sharp flattening of SMS and that unless Wii does the same (not likely with Wii-Fit driving a sales craze) SMG is going to keep right on going into the sky...although at an ever decreasing rate as expected. 
To Each Man, Responsibility
FishyJoe on 27 January 2008

Read my sig.



Gnizmo on 27 January 2008

http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=Grand+Theft+Auto%3A+San+Andreas+-+PS2&reg2=All&game2=Super+Mario+Galaxy+-+Wii&reg3=All&game3=&weeks=16
6 mln. in first 4 month. +2 in rest time In USA.
atleast 4,5 mln. in first 4 month. +2 mln. in rest time in Europe.


So no game has ever done that. Gotcha. SMG has done close to San Andreas sales on a system with one fifth of the install base.



Starcraft 2 ID: Gnizmo 229

TWRoO on 27 January 2008

I wasn't going to bother commenting but I just wanted to say wow at the graph Crazzy posted [GTA:SA vs SMG]... I didn't realise Galaxy was doing so incredibly well till you posted that.



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stof on 27 January 2008

Yeah TWRoO, Galaxy is actually gaining ground. Infact, were it not for the staggered release date of Mario, it would probably actually be selling the exact same rate as GTA



I'm a mod, come to me if there's mod'n to do. 

Chrizum is the best thing to happen to the internet, Period.

Serves me right for challenging his sales predictions!

Bet with dsisister44: Red Steel 2 will sell 1 million within it's first 365 days of sales.

CrazzyMan on 27 January 2008

@stof,

That's not logical at all. The userbase isn't the defining factor at this point. The game's only been out for 12 weeks! Sunshine was out for years. However over time the userbase will be the big factor, and the Wii's userbase will make the cube look like a wonderswan.
Maybe, or maybe NOT.
20 mln. Wii and 21,5 mln. GC. I expect to SMG reach SMS sales levels with 21.5 mln. Wii.
But that makes me think, that for NOW most wii owners are nintendo fans.
if to look to japan sales, that is 4 mln. GC vs 5 mln. Wii. that makes only 20% of non nintendo fans.
Huh? I pointed out that your Japan argument doesn't make sense, what's that have to do with world wide 16 week sales? I'm saying that sunshine was purchased by a percentage of new console owners, and so will Galaxy. The difference here is that a lot more people in Japan will be buying the Wii than the Cube, so Galaxy sales will remain substantially higher.
700k SMS in 16 weeks With 1.5 mln. GC on the launch.
870k SMS LTD with 4 mln. GC LTD, ot another 62% in HW increase brought only 24% of sales, or just 170k.
So I take it this means you still intend to ignore the fact that the Gamecube was a flop in Japan? What is the game supposed to sell in it's last 90 weeks when hardly anyone is buying the console?
2,5 mln or 62% increase is nothing?
I was refering to Japan
That`s why SMG LTD in Japan will be around 1 mln.
Um.. It's only been out for 12 weeks! And in it's 12th week it was the highest selling game World Wide with 166 thousand in the middle of January! So it hasn't made 10 million yet because that's a silly expectation.
BUT SMG will sell next 5 mln. with it`s legs declining in all regions?
Or they will suddently rise?

@Gnizmo,
So no game has ever done that. Gotcha. SMG has done close to San Andreas sales on a system with one fifth of the install base.
Whaa...? GTA3:SA DID sold 10 mln. in 16 weeks.



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

HappySqurriel on 27 January 2008
CrazzyMan said:
@stof,
That's not logical at all. The userbase isn't the defining factor at this point. The game's only been out for 12 weeks! Sunshine was out for years. However over time the userbase will be the big factor, and the Wii's userbase will make the cube look like a wonderswan.
Maybe, or maybe NOT.
20 mln. Wii and 21,5 mln. GC. I expect to SMG reach SMS sales levels with 21.5 mln. Wii.
But that makes me think, that for NOW most wii owners are nintendo fans.
if to look to japan sales, that is 4 mln. GC vs 5 mln. Wii. that makes only 20% of non nintendo fans.

Don't you think that a more likely reason why their sales would be so similar is that two games that are similarly high profile, selling on systems with similar sized userbases, will have similar sales?



CrazzyMan on 27 January 2008

@TWRoO, sorry.
That graphic was GTA3:SA USA sales only vs WW SMG.

here are USA - http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=America&game1=Grand+Theft+Auto%3A+San+Andreas+-+PS2®2=America&game2=Super+Mario+Galaxy+-+Wii®3=All&game3=&weeks=16

@Sqrl, yeah, i agree, we need a litle more data.
Like when Wii will reach 21,5 mln. =)
Uncharted is GREAT experience too, so when ps3 will reach 100 mln. Uncharted will reach 10 mln., Rigth?
Just since when Mario game become somehting more, then FF or GT series? Because FF reached only 8 mln. with 120 mln. base. GT4 only 9 mln.

@HappySqurriel,

Don't you think that a more likely reason why their sales would be so similar is that two games that are similarly high profile, selling on systems with similar sized userbases, will have similar sales?
And having in mind, that those 21.5 mln. GC owners most were nintendo fans, doesn`t THAT prove, that MOST(80%) of 20 mln. Wii owner ALSO are nintendo fans? And again, what makes YOU think, that increase of Wii userbase will DOUBLE SMG sales? If THAT didn`t worked for FFXII, GT4, MGS3. I`m just saying, that according to SMG and SMS sales, mostlikely, that 80% of Wii owners are nintendo fans.



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

Gnizmo on 27 January 2008

Whaa...? GTA3:SA DID sold 10 mln. in 16 weeks.


Are we looking at the same graph? It did 6 million in 4 months which is amazing. It had a simultaneous world wide launch. Well Japan was late but that did not sell 4 million lifetime, let alone in 4 months.



Starcraft 2 ID: Gnizmo 229