Kasz216 said: It could. Probably won't though... a backwords compatable and cheap Wii 2 will likely be out in 5-6 years. So it won't be like the PS2, who has only had the super expensive PS3 as a successor.

 I don't see Wii 2 coming out that soon, unless Wii sales decline too far or a competitor threatens to disrupt the Wii market, I think Nintendo will try to ride the Wii as long as they can

@ daactualfact
To clear up some cultural confusion you seem to have: Sensei is a Japanese word; the Chinese equivalent would be sifu. Yoga is an Indian tradition, and Buddhism originated in India but is not one of their major religions (Hindu > Muslim > Christian > Sikh > Buddhist). Jackie Chan comes from Hong Kong, but Jet Li is from mainland China (Beijing).

OT: China and India will make very little difference to the overall sales of the Wii or any other console. The Wii will be lucky to break 100m and is very unlikely to reach 150m. Next gen is when China (and possibly India) will really start to count.

well i'm not counting china in my prediction cause eventhough wii is the cheapest console there is many you know "pirate versions" like vii and winner. besides nintendo produce somethin like 18mln wiis per year(they shipped 2013mln from start to 31december 2007) and this won't change for a long time i think.

Played_Out said: OT: China and India will make very little difference to the overall sales of the Wii or any other console. The Wii will be lucky to break 100m and is very unlikely to reach 150m. Next gen is when China (and possibly India) will really start to count.

 Disagree, as Wii is outselling both the PS2 and the DS in most markets even with supply issues, indicating a higher lifetime trend.

 

Inaddition Middle classes in China and India are on the rise, and while Wii at the moment wouldn't make a splash, a $99 equivalent machine in four years would be a bigger draw in both countries

@SlorgNet:

Does it take off when income hits $5000? It surly grows but more than when it hits $4000 or $6000? The problem is that there is little data considering video games industry from "poor" countries. You mentioned Russia, do you have any data from it? I would love to see it if you do.


I don't think this reasoning is valid. If even it is true that $5,000$ income means something you didn't use that logic for Russia. When Russia hit 5000$ there were also people that have more than 5k income (and probably they contributed most to console market grow). And when Russia hit 2k yearly income people living in Moscow probably were making 5k yearly or more but you didn't say that Russian market hit off when it hit 2k, right?

Wii stands the best chance. It would be quite a feat should it do it. If sales remain as strong for a long time then it 's likely it will. first console to reach 200 million - skys the limit

Wii could hit 150M even without China.

First, to those who don't know, Nintendo has announced that they release Wii in China in 2008 and they also said, that its price will be equivalent to the world market price (so i'd take that as equivalent to US price). But, pricecut at the same time with chinese launch isn't out of the question.
Wii is out in Africa, if i recall, it's released in South-Africa.

Copycon explained pretty well how the chinese market works. And i see Slorgs comparision with Russia failing. In Russia, the middle class have been non-existent until recent years, which means that there have been only people that can't afford anything and people who can afford basically everything. So there has been really nothing in between. So instead of lookin GPD per capita, you should look GPD per capita and the size of the middle class.
Gaming market took off in Russia, when middle class made enough money and was big enough. And what is happening in China, is that the middle class is growing and their earnings are growing too.

Now the chinese market is tricky because of piracy and low income. Konnichiwa posted good article, which gives us view on the size of the chinese gaming market in term of revenue. Chinese government has promised to do something about the rampant piracy, but even if they do, it will take years before it has visible effect. So the optimal situation would be distributing downloadable and streaming content.

Anyway, China has potential, but how big the market is after all and how much people are willing to spend on games, is beyond me but i don't think Sony, M$ or Nintendo would be willing to go to China if they wouldn't see the market being viable to them. Edited because of originally reading one quote wrong.

bdbdbd said: Wii could hit 150M even without China. First, to those who don't know, Nintendo has announced that they release Wii in China in 2008 and they also said, that its price will be equivalent to the world market price (so i'd take that as equivalent to US price). But, pricecut at the same time with chinese launch isn't out of the question. Wii is out in Africa, if i recall, it's released in South-Africa.

 i didn't know that wii is in africa nad china guest i have to change my prediction.

joora said: The only question is will the Wii reamin easily chipable (as in, run pirated copies of games). If it will when it hits China, it has a chance of becoming a sucess. But ninty can't expect high software sales there.

Agreed. 

Walked into a shop in Wuhan (Hubei Province, Central China) yesterday. They had imported Wiis, PS3s and Xbox360s.  They had ps3 games and xbox360 games (some of the only legit software that i have every seen here) but ONLY pirated Wii games.

Good luck to avoiding piracy in China, it's 80-90% of the whole media market.  There is zero respect here for intellectual property rights.  Quote from a friend; "why should we pay 60 dollars for a game when we can copy it and pay 1, 60 dollars is to expensive for a game"

swyggi said: Isn't China a communist nation? If so, they won't allow businesses to prosper over there since everything is run by the government.

 China has it's own peculiar branch of communism but has had a market economy for nearly 20 years.  The government still has it's fingers in many pies but it doesn't mean that businesses aren't allowed to prosper.