More Mario Kart than Wonderful 101. I should probably add that to the OP...

EDIT: Done.

No, probably not.  They might retain and restructure some of the employees, but I think "Team Ico" is done.  Fumito Ueda is no longer a Sony employee and is finishing TLG under contract.  Without him, it's not really Team Ico, even if they keep the name for promotional reasons.

I see it doing really well at the end of this year, then all throughout the next year, then completely divebombing in sales. I think with the way the industry is now, the heavy hitters would have a greater impact than the equivalents did on the GCN, but long term I still don't see the console breaking 60 million, and may well even do as bad as N64 level numbers.

I think the Wii U will do alright...
It will hardly do what the Wii did, but if Nintendo releases the new Pokemon Rumble game in the West (along with the toys that go along with it) things might look up...
I also think The Wonderful 101 looks incredibly charming...
If they're willing to aggressively promote it, then it may just be their next big IP...
But I honestly don't expect that to happen...

They need to drop the price significantly to appeal to kids/family market (where parents make the call on which system to get). Right now they are getting killed by the cheaper PS3/360 for that market.

I don't think LEGO City or even Wind Waker HD (a game that couldn't sell GameCubes even when it was new 10 years ago) will do much of anything for Wii U hardware sales.

Nor do I think 3D Mario is a huge system seller where 2D Mario was not, even on the 3DS, NSMB2 has outsold Mario 3D Land already I think.

Mario Kart and Wii Sports U is probably what they'll push hardest this fall, even though I think Wii Sports' time has come and gone, it can't do worse than Nintendo Land (or can it?). Despite what people say I do think Nintendo was banking heavily on Nintendo Land to be a heavy hitter but I think the mini-game formula has grown stale for many people.

They should try marketing the crap out of Wonderful 101 to kids and creating NFC figurines for that game. They need something new to break out.

The first point is quoted because it's wrong...

The second point is quoted because it's fabulous...

I really think Nintendo could be sitting on gold with this IP...

It really all depends on what they choose to do with it...

If NSMB2 isn't ahead of Mario 3D Land yet, it will be soon enough, so that's pretty much academic at this point.

NSMB DS > Super Mario 64 DS

NSMB Wii > Super Mario Galaxy 1 + 2 combined

^ I'd point out that the first NSMB on DS acted as a major system seller in the west, probably the biggest pure system seller it ever had in the region. People were buying Lites TO PLAY NSMB rather than buying it because they already had a DS.

I do think that NSMB's status as a system seller is now over and it's largely relegated to game casuals buy once they already have the system while 3D Mario will still act as genuine system seller... But we'll see.

I think people are overestimating Mario kart's ability to sell systems I loved Mario kart wii but i seriously doubt another huge sales outburst again.  To the topic at hand, I can't give a number but when SSBU comes out I expect a spike.  That's when I'll buy a Wii U and I know some others who'll do the same 

People went to buy 3DS 2 holidays ago for price cut + MK7 + Mario 3D Land.

People didn't go to buy as much last holiday with 3DSXL + NSMB2.

People rushed in holidays 2009 to buy a Wii + NSMBWii

People laugh at Wii U + NSMBU

The only thing it has been proved, is that the system seller statuts of the NSMB series has gone and the 3D Marios still have. Gamers (mostly the dedicated ones) are going to buy a console/handheld for a 3D Mario, not for another NSMB sequel.

2D Marios need to be diferent to gain back the system seller status.

Edit: Damn DietSoap