Price drops are at the end of Q3 / beginning Q4

Q4 2008 PS3 drops €100
400-100=300 100/400           =25% increase of sales that stabilizes after boost. 

Q4 2009 PS3 drops €100
300-100=200 100/300           =33% increase of sales that stabilizes after boost. 

Q4 2010 PS3 drops €50
200-50=150    50/200             =25% increase of sales that stabilizes after boost. 

Q4 2011 PS3 drops €50
PS3 150-50= 100 50/150       =33% increase of sales that stabilizes after boost. 

Weekly
PS3  150.000 x 1,25 = 187.500 x 1,33= 249.375 x 1,25 = 311.719 x 1,33= 414.586

 
First 39 weeks take 50% of sales
Last 13 weeks take 50% of  sales

Until 29^th December 2007                               8.841.486 

Q1,Q2,Q3 2008         Q4 2008                     Total 2008
5.850.000                   7.312.500                   13.162.500

Q1,Q2,Q3 2009         Q4 2009                     Total 2009
7.312.500                   9.725.625                   17.038.125     

Q1,Q2,Q3 2010         Q4 2010                     Total 2010                  
9.725.625                   12.157.041                 21.882.666

Q1,Q2,Q3 2011         Q4 2011                     Total 2011
12.157.041                 16.168.854                 28.325.895

 
8.841.486+13.162.500+17.038.125+21.882.666+28.325.895 = 89.250.672

This is what the PS3 can do at best. Q4 2011 it's only € 100. It's unlikely to sell the PS3 for 5 years at the same price. They might choose to stretch the price cuts or make them smaller. Either way sales will be lower within 5 years if they do. 

However the PS3 is huge competition for standalone Blu-ray players. We will have to wait a few more years before Blu-ray attracts mass market appeal 2009/2010. Up until then Blu-ray isn't important for PS3. Up until now Blu-ray has only hurt the PS3. This doesn't mean the PS3 is superior to the Wii. Without Blu-ray the PS3 would still loose against the Wii. Blu-ray is just a non-gaming aspect that could drive sales extremely well.

BTW, no.

 i partially agree except that I think Wii will be a bit higher and achieve 50% ms

Not when it sells 8k a week in Japan.

It has a chance, albeit a very small one, if it was selling 30k a week in Japan, and selling like it is selling in America and others, I'd say it has a good chance.

yes why cause i said so

If you really believe that the PS3 will be selling 400k units per week in 2011, I have some oceanfront property in Nebraska to sell you. And even under this ludicrous scenario, the PS3 still comes up 10m short of 100m, as Doktor85 demonstrates!

I think reading this thread is making me dumber.

First of all my price cuts are unrealistic. Q4 2011 a PS3 costs €100,- That's not going to happen. Sony wants it to have a 10 year life cycle. The growth won't be exponential forever. After a product is mature sales will decline.

€150,-/ €200,- is the price point when a console has it's top year (maturity). After that sales will decline.

And even under this ludicrous scenario, the PS3 still comes up 10m short of 100m, as Doktor85 demonstrates!

Yes, it illustrates that it is impossible to hit 100mln in it's first 5 years.

PS3 will sell 150 million by the end of its lifetime 2015

 so it'll sell more than the PS2??? I seriously doubt that

By the end of 2015 the PS3 will have reached 150 million and would of out sell the Wii by 30 million. Expect the Wii to drop off in three years time. PS3 will outlive both the current XBox 360 and the next XBox.