Price drops are at the end of Q3 / beginning Q4
Q4 2008 PS3 drops €100
400-100=300 100/400 =25% increase of sales that stabilizes after boost.
Q4 2009 PS3 drops €100
300-100=200 100/300 =33% increase of sales that stabilizes after boost.
Q4 2010 PS3 drops €50
200-50=150 50/200 =25% increase of sales that stabilizes after boost.
Q4 2011 PS3 drops €50
PS3 150-50= 100 50/150 =33% increase of sales that stabilizes after boost.
Weekly
PS3 150.000 x 1,25 = 187.500 x 1,33= 249.375 x 1,25 = 311.719 x 1,33= 414.586
First 39 weeks take 50% of sales
Last 13 weeks take 50% of sales
Until 29th December 2007 8.841.486
Q1,Q2,Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Total 2008
5.850.000 7.312.500 13.162.500
Q1,Q2,Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Total 2009
7.312.500 9.725.625 17.038.125
Q1,Q2,Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Total 2010
9.725.625 12.157.041 21.882.666
Q1,Q2,Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Total 2011
12.157.041 16.168.854 28.325.895
8.841.486+13.162.500+17.038.125+21.882.666+28.325.895 = 89.250.672
This is what the PS3 can do at best. Q4 2011 it's only € 100. It's unlikely to sell the PS3 for 5 years at the same price. They might choose to stretch the price cuts or make them smaller. Either way sales will be lower within 5 years if they do.
However the PS3 is huge competition for standalone Blu-ray players. We will have to wait a few more years before Blu-ray attracts mass market appeal 2009/2010. Up until then Blu-ray isn't important for PS3. Up until now Blu-ray has only hurt the PS3. This doesn't mean the PS3 is superior to the Wii. Without Blu-ray the PS3 would still loose against the Wii. Blu-ray is just a non-gaming aspect that could drive sales extremely well.
