Avinash_Tyagi said: Username2324 said: Or you can hit up this link, showing the PS3 has pretty much identical sales of the PS2 within the same amount of time, so again, it is very likely that the PS3 will be able to hit 100million, the 360 on the other hand, not so likely since its really a America only console. http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=PS2&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&weeks=200 Or you can realize that PS2 was only in Japan for like over half a year, and PS3 was launched in all three before PS2 launched in NA.   PS3 is undertracking the PSP, 40 million is being generous

His chart goes up to 200 weeks, and the ps3 has been on the market for well over a year. After the ps2 had been on the market for a year, the supply constraints had come to an end, so anybody that would've wanted the system would've been able to buy one. Needless to say, a year into each system's life total sales were roughly the same. The same amount of people that wanted a ps3 in the first year and bought one roughly equate to the same amount of people that wanted a ps2 in the first year, and bought one. All of this despite the fact that the ps3 cost $600 for half of its first year.

The tags in my sig and the sheep in your avatar prove that there IS such a thing as brand loyalty. Who is it that buys a console at launch, despite high prices, the probability of hardware problems, and a meager game selection? Loyalists.

Why is is that the ps3 kept pace with the 360 for most of the year, and outsells it now, despite being more expensive (at times over $200 so) and despite having a much smaller game library? Brand loyalty. Why is it that the ps3 has already passed up the 360 in many European countries, despite the 360's year long head start? Brand loyalty.

Brand loyalty does exist, however how big a role it will play remains to be seen.

Bubblicious said: If I'm correct the PS2 sold about 18-20 million in it's first year. The PS3 has barely managed to sell half that number in the same time so, No it will not reach 100 milllion. The PS3 lacks the PS2's momentum(which the Wii currently has) so it would take nothing short of a miracle to reach 100M. Even if Sony does stick to their 10 year plan, MS and Nintendo will roll out their new products in a few years which will become the new hot consoles and the PS3 will become old news as consumers will be expecting the PS4 as a retaliation(which is most likely to happen).

 Due to its staggered launch it actually sold a shockingly small number of units the first year it was out. PS3 fanboys love to cherry pick that one fact and ignore why it is true. You are correct though that it is not selling nearly as fast as the PS2 did. and the Wii is selling as fast or faster than the PS2 depending on market.

@Crazzy: As you can see, there wasn't any. And therefore you can't argue what i said = you fail. Although there's no logic in your posts either.

The facts people point at you doesn't seem to work. You ignore nearly all of them. For example, you show how PS3 sells equal to PS2 WW, but ignore the fact looking sales regionally, it trails behind. 360 was the fastest selling console before the Wii came out, still it lost to PS2 nearly everywhere.

In my first post to this thread, i wrote pretty reasonable and fair post about what kind of failed logic is used in this thread and you pretty much use the whole list.
Now, if you really want us to consider the circumstances in which PS3 would sell 100M, you need to get reasonable, use real arguments and not ignore the facts. I would be willing to consider all the possibilities, although i don't see PS3 to make it only to 50.

The reason why PS3 does so good in Europe, in comparision to PS2, is because the price difference is actually really small. But the competition aspect is different this time; it's not the console with highest momentum.

If I understand what you are saying you are incorrect. The PS2 sold comparitively much faster than the PS3. The PS2 just staggered its launch by a whole lot more giving it the appearance of poor year 1 sales.

HappySqurriel said: Personally, I don't think it is realistic to expect more than a 25% improvement year-over-year in sales from any not supply constrained console that has been released in all regions; if the PS3 improved its sales by 25% every year it would finally hit 100 Million units in 2013. If you assume this pattern of growth for the PS3 (which is a lot like most non-dominant console lifecycles): 2008: 10% improvement over 2007 2009: 10% improvement over 2008 2010: 10% reduction from 2009 2011: 25% reduction from 2010 2012: 75% reduction from 2011 The PS3 will break 40 Million units by 2013.

 I have not read any of the posts past this point, but this post wins big time. If you look at the last generation at the consoles that did not win (i.e.: GameCube and Xbox), they gained marginally nothing year over year, and then decreased rapidly after the 3rd year. This post wins.

It's also important to remember, like others have said, that first year sales are really the most important. Not only that, but the first three years really are the most important, because after 3 years, the consoles growth starts to decline. It will happen with the Wii, and it will happen with the PS3. All that matters is how much will they grow up to that point, and then how much will it decline afterwards. Dominate consoles see little declines, whereas the non-dominate consoles see larger declines, as HappySqurriel has said. 

WW - since LAUNCH - NOT per REGION.
x360 sold only 500k in Japan in 2 years, so what now? it won` reach 20 mln. WW?

FACT: 1) MOST PS3 cost at launch 600$, PS2 cost 300$.
FACT: 2) PS2 launched in 2000, PS3 in 2006.
FACT: 3) Different launch times across the world.
FACT: 4) PS2 didn` have REAL competitors, PS3 now has.
You IGNORE these FACTS, right?

SO PS3 doing GREAT in Europe(like PS2). That makes 40 mln. PS3 alone in that region. Ratchet and Clank PS2 - 2.93m It came by the end of 2002, with 43 mln. ps2 sold.
Ratchet:ToD - 0.75m it came by the end of 2007, with 9 mln. sold.
If you expect 0.75 coppies with 43 mln. PS3 sold, then you are fool.


http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=PS&reg1=Japan&cons2=PS3&reg2=Japan&cons3=X360&reg3=------&weeks=150 So what make you think, thta THIS won`t work for WW, if worked for Japan.


To x360? PS3 Still have over 40 exclusive games in 2008. How many x360 has?
PS3 has more PS3 exclusive+x360 multiplaform games compared to Wii in 2008.
PS3 has more PS3 exclsive games, compared to x360 in 2008.

@Bubblicious,
PS2
2000 - 6 mln.
2001 - 22 mln.
PS3
2007 - 9 mln.
2008 - 25 mln. (prediction)299$? How about that? =)



@bdbdbd, and YOU IGNORE ALL 4 FACTS above. WHY?RIGHT PRICE and +100 GREAT GAMES - That is REASONABLE.

The reason why PS3 doesn`t do so good in Japan/USA, in comparision to PS2, is because the price difference isn`t actually small. But the competition aspect is different this time; it's the console with highest momentum att 299$ price.

@Stever89, ALL THESE speculations made on FIRST ps3 year.
IF PS3 will sell 16 mln. in 2008, then WHAT?

"@Rath, Mario, Mario, Mario, Zelda. =)
25 mln. GC and 120 mln. PS2. End of story."

Are you trying to deny that Mario and Zelda are huge series?

If so then you sir, are not worth arguing with.

The PS2 won because it had far more series than are currently announced for the PS3 as well as a smarter price point and more early popularity.

PS2 had as exclusives-
Final Fantasy
GTA
MGS
GT
GoW
Devil May Cry
Guitar Hero
Ratchet and Clank (I forgot this one off the PS3 list)
Dragon Quest
Kingdom Hearts
Soul Calibur

I can probably go on but I think you got the idea, many of these have now either switched platform entirely (ie. DQ) are as yet unannounced (ie. KH) or are multiplatform (ie. GTA)

Guys ...

Arguing rationally about sales with CrazzyMan is like arguing evolution with the puritans. He will never look at the numbers or any argument rationally, he will simply continue preaching his blind faith regardless of any argument you make. When the games he always hypes come out and sell at a fraction of the level he expects, and PS3 sales do not see a turn around, he will just pick some random game in the future to hype as the PS3's savior; he (and several similar fanboys) have been doing this since the release of the PS3.

Just explain why you think PS3 will win Crazzy.

Explain logically. Use charts, sales, and history. Don't use opinions. Don't cherry pick. Just explain.

You either don't understand what I am saying or are delibratly ignoring it. The PS3 is selling slower in Japan than the PS2. The PS3 is selling slower in America than the PS2. The PS3 is selling slower in the rest of the world than the PS2. Only in Europe is it selling at a similar rate so far. WW since launch is a meaningless comparison because that is essentially comparing Japan for the PS2 to the rest of the world for the PS3. There is no value in that comparison, you fail.



Because you can't just look at one market and say that is the way it was for the rest of the world. If we look at just American sales we would see the 360 as the current dominant console but that is clearly not the case. You have no proof for your claim so you can't stand by it as a fact.



The first game sold 3 million on a user base of around 20 -30 million (then the sequel came out killing the ales of the original). It had an attach rate of 10-15%. The new ones is below 8% on a smaller user base (which makes high attach rates easier). There is comparitively not as many PS3 owners that want Rachet and Clank as ther were PS2 owners. The fans are abandoning the game because they don't like the platform.



It is losing exclusives to both systems. Spin it however makes you feel best but the fact is it is losing exclusives to both systems. This trend has not reversed itself yet, and I doubt it ever will.