| HappySqurriel said: Personally, I don't think it is realistic to expect more than a 25% improvement year-over-year in sales from any not supply constrained console that has been released in all regions; if the PS3 improved its sales by 25% every year it would finally hit 100 Million units in 2013. If you assume this pattern of growth for the PS3 (which is a lot like most non-dominant console lifecycles):
The PS3 will break 40 Million units by 2013. |
I have not read any of the posts past this point, but this post wins big time. If you look at the last generation at the consoles that did not win (i.e.: GameCube and Xbox), they gained marginally nothing year over year, and then decreased rapidly after the 3rd year. This post wins.
It's also important to remember, like others have said, that first year sales are really the most important. Not only that, but the first three years really are the most important, because after 3 years, the consoles growth starts to decline. It will happen with the Wii, and it will happen with the PS3. All that matters is how much will they grow up to that point, and then how much will it decline afterwards. Dominate consoles see little declines, whereas the non-dominate consoles see larger declines, as HappySqurriel has said.
