I know a lot of people come and call doom on the PSV and I understand why, but at the same time I feel it is premature to say anything about it.  Yes it is underperforming and doesn't do much on the market so why am I saying 40 million will be sold at minumum?  Well here it goes.

The PlayStation Vita was released in Japan on December 17, 2011 and later released to the rest of the world on February 22 which means it is now it's one year anneversary to the entire world.  Let's look at a few numbers world wide.

Hardware - 4.18m
Software -  10.24m

Top selling games

Uncharted: Golden Abyss: 910k
Call of Duty: Declassified - 630k
Assassin's Creed III: Liberation - 590k

Top Rated Games 

Persona 4 Golden - 94
Rayman Origins - 88
LittleBigPlanet Vita - 88

Now to continue my prediction you see relatively low numbers from sales and the top rated games are not even the best selling games.  now what does that mean?  It has yet to have a system seller.  When it does get it's first system seller expect the sales to raise.  Also I want to note that the price will not be $300 forever either which will help it's longevity.

Now on to my main point. The Playstation Vita has sold 4.18m worldwide in it's first year so do you expect the Vita to sell less than 4 million every year for now on?  I know I don't  I expect sales to raise eventually.  If not this year, then next year.  See the thing about the Vita is the power behind this small device.  I expect the Vita to have a 10 year life on the market.  Think about how powerful it is. I could see myself playing this device relatively happy with the graphics for it 10 years from now.  i can't say that about older consoles.  As long as Sony and third parties support it, it will have a long life ahead of it.  Which with price cuts and overtime as more people pick the vita up, third parties will then become more attracted to the vita.

Now here it is.  Let's say that the Vita sells 4m on average every year of it's life.  Multiply with a 10 year lifecycle and bam, 40m consoles.  This is my prediction at a bare minimum.  To say the Vita is failing i'll agree but the handheld's future looks promising in the future with an eventual profit.

Now remember I used a 4m average throughout it's life.  How much do you expect the Vita to sell yearly when it's price gets around $180 for both the Vita and Memory Card?

I say 25-40m

EDIT: After thinking about it, fuck no it won't reach 40m.

25-30m

I say 35m lifetime atleast, look at this post in 2018.

I must say that if it will keep selling 4mil a year I cannot see more than 4 more year in the market!

It will need to step up to 7/8 mil a year to have a longer life.

Just my opinion!

I've said for a long time I expect between 30-50 million life times sales, almost stupidly high entry price point and lack of decent game flow, those two issues will be fixed and thus sales will increase.

If it doesn't pick up sales wise, it won't even last another 3 years. So it really could be anywhere between 18mil and 40mil.

40m sounds about right, I wouldn't call it the minimum though.

Note that all the top selling games are western.

The handheld needs Japan.

Indeed it could, as could the PS4, 720 etc. However, these are not really relevant in this thread. They won't let the Vita die, but they could easily change it into a phone or similar device one way, or degrade it to a GamePad-esque device another way. Neither or these are likely to happen, but the options are at least plentiful for Sony.

Very true, I expect sales to pick up somewhat substantially when the Ps4 is released with the correct features; if it's implemented well. There's also no reason why Sony couldn't release a version with fewer feautres, costs £50 less (or more) and include it in a PS4 "Super Box" or something so you can play the PS4 on the go. That would be a good move.