How much would this benefit Sony? To clarify, let's just say that the next X-Box will have very comparable specs with the PS4. The situation's pretty much like the last few E3s where Microsoft was pushing hard for the Kinect. The next X-Box will come with a Kinect, will feature it heavily, and will push the next X-Box as an entertainment hub for the living room.

Basically, the main marketing focus of the next X-Box is more of an "do everything machine" for the whole family, as opposed to a "hardcore" game console for young males.

What do you guys think this would mean for Sony if they focus the message of PS4 as a console for "hardcore" adult gamers (which is really reminding me of the initial PS3 marketing...)? Do you think current XBox owners will be pursuaded to give up Halo and X-Box live for the PS4 by this kind of positioning? On the other hand, depending on how Microsoft positions the next XBox, you could basically see people associating the XBox with the WiiU (or maybe stradling somewhere in the middle), while PS4 remains as the only "hardcore" console remaining out of the 3.

Two past things I think people should keep in mind:

1) PS3's initial marketing (360 is just X-Box 1.5, PS3 has the best graphics)

2) Gamer's reception to Kinect/recent E3s and their goodwill towards Microsoft.

Oh, totally unrelated video:

With tablets, there is no room for a casual games console. MS will get killed.

There is room actually. MS is poised to swallow up the Wii market.
Their yoga/dance games are simpler and stylish, with lots of marketing (they hire someone in MS stores to simply play dance central all day)
They want to control the living room through the kinect, lights, in home camera, security, tv...
They have a large number of devs working on casual games.
And Wii has fallen off the casual market. Hopefully it can regain it with wiiU games like wiiU fit, etc etc, but I'm guessing MS is very confident they can pay the iron price for it.

A lot of tech is going into nextbox for seemingly casual purposes. If it actually includes a kinect, which requires system resources for things like controlling the environment, they will be sacrificing a lot of core processing power.
Don't expect the games to challenge ps4's.

This all assumes kinect is included, which is likely guaranteed. If they don't they could WiiU the kinect; ie, confuse their customers with a product that doesn't differentiate itself enough.

No way will anyone ever associate the next Xbox with the WiiU imho. I don't think a "casuals" approach by MS would be a big deal to me personally, so long as they continue to either develop or make sure awesome content shows up on their console as they did with the 360. I can just ignore the stuff that doesn't appeal to me.

Xbox will have the core titles, 3rd party and their increased 1st party efforts.

Their casual approach will mean a greater advantage in NA and even Europe if PS4 isnt marketed as casual. MS can make everybody happen next gen.

I dunno where the idea that Microsoft is taking over the casual market is coming from.  They can have people playing Dance Central in Microsoft stores all day long, but Dance Central managed about 500,000 in sales.  Looking at first year sales, this is a huge drop form Dance Central 2 (1.2 million) and Dance Central (1.3 million). 

This is the pattern with Kinect software.  There was a big massive hype at the beginning, before developers realized that the hardware wasn't useful for gaming, and gamers simply lost interest.  What Kinect games have actually sold well?  Aside from those that were bundled, and those that launched with the system, there are none that I could think of.  Including the Kinect with the neX-Box would help to avoid fragmentation, but that won't solve the problem.  Consider this; the Kinect has an install base similar to that of the 3DS.  It should certainly be able to push more software than it does.

  The Kinect sold around 7 million in its first year, which was actually just a few months.  Second year it sold another 7 millionish, but that was full calender year.  This year it sold 5 million.  This is despite a price drop to the 80 dollar range.  In terms of bundles, the X-Box 4GB is 200 dollars, the Kinect model came with bundles that included 2-3 games for 100 dollars more, so the Kinect is really very cheap now.  People have lost interest.

If the Kinect is X-Box's push for the casual market, then it's not happening for them. 

Gaming is now going to be a secondary approach I think. Kinect will be used to navigate your media via gesture/voice, voice command search the marketplace, video skype with people, etc. It pushes the media hub agenda in ways the PS4 can never do.

Oh, and it can do party games for the social gamer. A nice secondary function

The Xbox brand won't lose its Halo players no matter what they do with Kinect. That will be enough to keep a large core fanbase by itself.

What Microsoft is banking on is that Kinect and its media features will bring in non-traditional gamers, which I'm not so sure about. I think that market will be a lot less than they're hoping for.

The only way they could hurt their chances with core players is if they pulled a Wii move and had all Kinect focused games at launch. I can't imagine thing making a mistake like that, however.

I don't think so on the navigation.  Voice commands are nice, but limited.  In terms of navigation though, I think that's why Microsoft made Smart Glass which is really a lot better for that sort of thing.  Rumors are that the PS4 will have something similar and Nintendo already has something (arguably) superrior with the Gamepad.

I just can't believe people don't see where the next xbox is headed. I guess people are too much in to gaming to see the big picture. Gamers are like 30% of the market Xbox wants to go after.

Casual gaming/hardcore...both are checkboxes on the to-do list for sure, but not something Microsoft will focus on. Microsoft wants to control the TV and have a permanent foothold in the living room outside the scope of gaming.

Currently there is a big shift for TV cable providers like Comcast, Time Warner and Rogers in Canada and they are trying to figure out how to deliver and monetize IP based cable service. I work for one and I fully know what our product roadmap is and what we are trying to do.

This will be the focus of the new Xbox. It's going to allow someone like Comcast to deliver their full cable service over the internet, while offering show and game interactivity on tablets and smartphones using companion apps as well as PVR like abilities. It will also be a next gen gaming platform for both hardcore and casuals, kinect for gesture, voice and gaming control and a portal to the internet and Microsoft services like Skydrive, Xbox Music etc... It's really not that hard to see that this is the strategy Microsoft needs to follow in order for xbox to compete with the big boys like Android and Apple. Gaming is one small part of the whole puzzle.

I wouldn't be surprised if the next xbox comes bundled for cheap (199 bucks) with cable providers service and 3 year contracts.