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The Xbox brand won't lose its Halo players no matter what they do with Kinect. That will be enough to keep a large core fanbase by itself.

What Microsoft is banking on is that Kinect and its media features will bring in non-traditional gamers, which I'm not so sure about. I think that market will be a lot less than they're hoping for.

The only way they could hurt their chances with core players is if they pulled a Wii move and had all Kinect focused games at launch. I can't imagine thing making a mistake like that, however.