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Forums - Nintendo - Nintendo 3rd Quarter Results (Oct-Dec) - Profit of over 450 million US

NintendoPie on 30 January 2013
Soundwave said:

Their projections are based largely I think on the 3DS and Wii U performing like the DS and Wii. I think they were hoping with more inventory the Wii U could keep up with the Wii for a little while at least, which was heavily supply constrained in 2006/2007.

What's actually probably happening is Nintendo is reverting back to the what they were when the pre-casual gaming craze bubble happened. So the Wii U/3DS are actually performing more like the GameCube and Game Boy Advance with that casual Nintendogs/Wii Sports/Brain Training bubble having popped.

Nintendo's basically gone back in a time warp to 2002. The 4 million shipped projection for Wii U for example is basically very much in line with the GameCube through its first March in 2002, which shipped 3.8 million I believe. Basically a wash, both are well below the Wii which shipped about 6 million in the same time frame (and was heavily supply constrained at that).

Well the 3DS is currently ahead of the DS in HardWare sales, right? I could see the 3DS continuing to do well but all bets are off for the Wii U. We just know way too little about it and what Nintendo will do.



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Max King of the Wild on 30 January 2013

Nintendo expects to ship only .94 million in 3 months. That's rough. .33 a month means weekly shipments of 80k or so. Also, probablly overtracked. Sales were slower than vgchartz suggested in 4th quarter. I wonder if the people complaining about people making wii u doomed threads knew this if they would have still been as vocal against it. Wii U is not in good shape right now. I don't think they will even make their 4mil estimates considering they are at a crawl right now. Probably 3.6million (if VGC is accurate in current sales. Considering the WiiU sales were slower than originally thought VGC sales may be slower now too.)

Where is the Last Star Fighter?



Yakuzaice on 30 January 2013
NintendoPie said:

Well the 3DS is currently ahead of the DS in HardWare sales, right? I could see the 3DS continuing to do well but all bets are off for the Wii U. We just know way too little about it and what Nintendo will do.


After 8 quarters, the DS was at 26.82 million shipped, the 3DS is at 29.84 million.  Keep in mind the DS did not launch in Europe until almost 4 months after the NA and JP launch.  I haven't adjusted for that.  The DS numbers are also ending September 2006.  Next quarter the DS shipped 8.79 million and should easily surpass the 3DS.  This is also the point where the DS exploded.  In the next quarter Jan-Mar 2007 the DS shipped 4.68 million and Apr-Jun was 6.98 million (only 670k less than the 3DS for this past holiday quarter).  The 3DS is unlikely to catch back up.

Currently the 3DS is flat/down compared to last year.  That would suggest a shipment of 2.1 million or less for the fourth quarter.  If it is 2.1 million, then after 9 quarters, the DS was at 35.61 million, and the 3DS would be at 31.94 million.  The 3DS would need to sell 32.85 million in the next fiscal year to catch up to the DS.



M.U.G.E.N on 30 January 2013

man..even Patchter is taking a piss using this 0_o

http://i.imgur.com/fYptSN6.jpg

so I guess at the moment his prediction record 1million predictions wrong: 1 correct..kind of



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NintendoPie on 30 January 2013
Yakuzaice said:
NintendoPie said:

Well the 3DS is currently ahead of the DS in HardWare sales, right? I could see the 3DS continuing to do well but all bets are off for the Wii U. We just know way too little about it and what Nintendo will do.


After 8 quarters, the DS was at 26.82 million shipped, the 3DS is at 29.84 million.  Keep in mind the DS did not launch in Europe until almost 4 months after the NA and JP launch.  I haven't adjusted for that.  The DS numbers are also ending September 2006.  Next quarter the DS shipped 8.79 million and should easily surpass the 3DS.  This is also the point where the DS exploded.  In the next quarter Jan-Mar 2007 the DS shipped 4.68 million and Apr-Jun was 6.98 million (only 670k less than the 3DS for this past holiday quarter).  The 3DS is unlikely to catch back up.

Currently the 3DS is flat/down compared to last year.  That would suggest a shipment of 2.1 million or less for the fourth quarter.  If it is 2.1 million, then after 9 quarters, the DS was at 35.61 million, and the 3DS would be at 31.94 million.  The 3DS would need to sell 32.85 million in the next fiscal year to catch up to the DS.

We'll see if it can keep up, the DS put on quite the show around this time.

3DS has some big games this year, though.



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Yakuzaice on 30 January 2013
NintendoPie said:

We'll see if it can keep up, the DS put on quite the show around this time.

3DS has some big games this year, though.

Well, I'm just saying, don't get your hopes up.  The DS had the same big games and the best 4 quarter period it ever had was 31.43 million.  The 3DS already has sequels to the 3 best selling games on the DS (4 in Japan), and the best it has managed is 15.04 million in a 4 quarter period (the 4 quarters after saw sales go down slightly).  It would also have to go from ~31.94 million in 9 quarters, to 32.85 million in just 4 quarters.



NintendoPie on 30 January 2013
Yakuzaice said:
NintendoPie said:

We'll see if it can keep up, the DS put on quite the show around this time.

3DS has some big games this year, though.

Well, I'm just saying, don't get your hopes up.  The DS had the same big games and the best 4 quarter period it ever had was 31.43 million.  The 3DS already has sequels to the 3 best selling games on the DS (4 in Japan), and the best it has managed is 15.04 million in a 4 quarter period (the 4 quarters after saw sales go down slightly).  It would also have to go from ~31.94 million in 9 quarters, to 32.85 million in just 4 quarters.

Trust me, I'm not going to get my hopes up about this. Things never go my way prediction-wise.



TripleMMM on 30 January 2013

Whoa, a two-way outcome, I was out the loop with the operating income. That is a bit of a damper...

Lol, I did forcast a 4 mil forecast for end of march, or was it 3 mil. Bloody hell, I can't remember. Like most of us said, the original 5 mil was a bit insane. And I just looked at Nintendo's stock chart dipping some time ago, much sharper than what I pictured... This is not all lost, but needs pick up their pace faster than they expected.



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benji232 on 30 January 2013

Wow, wiiU software is all heavily undertracked, and I bet the HW as well. Even tought that 3.06M HW shipped and not actual sales, I am pretty sure that they sold much more then 2.5m so far. Same with sw, I doubt they shipped 6M more then what they've actually sold. Vgchartz is getting less and less credible here..



Predictions for LT console sales:

PS4: 120M

XB1: 70M

WiiU: 14M

3DS: 60M

Vita: 13M

NintendoPie on 30 January 2013
benji232 said:
Wow, wiiU software is all heavily undertracked, and I bet the HW as well. Even tought that 3.06M HW shipped and not actual sales, I am pretty sure that they sold much more then 2.5m so far. Same with sw, I doubt they shipped 6M more then what they've actually sold. Vgchartz is getting less and less credible here..

The HW is most likely right. The SW is hard to believe, though. (But remember, VGC doesn't track Downloads.)