To give a preview of Q4 shipments, let's look at Japan.

The Wii U shipped 830k as of Dec 31st.

Media Create has recorded sales of 745,485 as of Jan 27th.

There are 9 weeks left in Q4, and last week they sold 13,746.  If sales are flat for the next 9 weeks, the Wii U will have sales of 869,199 at the end of the fiscal year.  That would result in a shipment of at most 100k.  When you consider that on VGC Japanese sales have made up 47.2% of all Wii U sales for 2013, that 940k forecast for Q4 looks very unlikely.  Especially when other regions seem to have overshipped even more than Japan.  Expect Wii U hardware to miss the forecast for the fiscal year.

I called the 4m WiiU figure and good job on their ability to quickly regain profitability to what should be a profitable year overall.

See even at their worst, they are still making money.

Japan is all but dead for the Wii U in the short term, unless DQX comes out earlier than expected and has a significant impact, which I doubt since the game is already old news, but who knows, they could do a bundle.

Resto of the world is in a dire situation as well, only game that could move some hardware but not in big quantities is Lego City, nothing else. The schedule is empty and void of any interesting or HW moving games when matched with the other consoles.

Nintendo is in for a rough end of the fiscal year. I'm eagerly awaiting the Q&A roundtable of tonight.

Oh, no, that I expect to be a complete bloodbath. They only sold a tenth of of the Wii's software numbers last week; Twilight Princess sold more in retail than the ENTIRE library. I'll be really surprised if they hit even these reduced numbers at this rate.

Thanks to the foreign exchange rates, hadn't the yen weakened, Nintendo would be posting losses again. In fact their revised forecast on the operating income (money made from core business) was slashed down from 20,000 million yen to -20,000 million yen

This means Nintendo will not be cutting price for a really long time

So what I'm seeing is:

DS overtracked around 350-400k
Wii pretty much right, maybe 50k undertracked
Wii U also around correct, maybe 100-150k undertracked
3DS massively undertracked around 700-1000k

So not too bad on the Home Console front VGC, a bit of corrections to be made on the Handhelds. It seems like these issues are indeed coming from Europe, as we expected.

Ok seriously, what the hell is up with those DS 'others' numbers? It's literally selling almost nothing there. I assumed sales would slow down quickly but not that quickly.

Such bitter-sweet results. I managed to sell my shares yesterday at 13.20, taking a loss, but protecting against the losses we see today...and potentially in the next couple weeks.

Investors don't care about artificial exchange-rate profits. They care about growth.

In earlier posts I correctly predicted revenue reduction to between 650 - 700b, based on Taruman's insight that Nintendo has NEVER had a quadruple multiple of 6-Month results to Fiscal Year End. What the F were Nintendo thinking setting 810B revenue, knowing that stat? I made a little chart of their revenue history comparing 6 month results to FY End over on the Nintendo Investors Thread.

I also guessed the revision down to 15m on 3DS sales...because they ended Dec 31 with 11m sold. But the revision for Wii U down to 4m was way lower than anyone could have guessed. The Wii U had its nightmare scenario come-true: Post-Holidays, sales fell off a cliff. No one outside of the hardcore Nintendo faithful are interested in the machine, right now. This isn't to say it won't make a comeback. And 24m to 16m in Wii U software, drastically bad...in my mind 16m is still an aggressive year-end goal.

Interestingly, the 11m Wii U software sales they reported for the quarter, you'll notice is more than double what's reported here on VGchartz. So - we see Nintendo is selling Digital Games at more than twice the rate! Just shows the rise of Digital-Downloads. And we can use this to predict whether or not Nintendo will hit their new 16m projection. I'm curious if Ninty counted the cheaper download games in the figure...guessing they must have.

And based on the last 2-weeks, 4m for Wii U by March 31 is not a gimme. 54k followed by 39k world-wide? I would be shocked to see a week bigger than 100k by 3/31. Ninty will have to pull some tricks out of their hats to move this machine. So despite FY Profit guidance raised to 14B, a price-cut is not out of the question for Wii U at all. To my mind it looks very likely.

How low could ou see it going it next few weeks?