Since Pokemon X/Y are coming out in Autumn, we know one thing, that'll push sales by quite a bit. If any one of the titles your question are coming out this year, in Autumn, then I can see the 3DS performing above expectations in Japan.

We need an update! lol.  Luigi's Mansion came out last week.

Week 12!

DS 06 -- 161,742
3DS 13 --75,915

DS sales soar to over 160k this week, bolstered by the release of Pokémon Ranger (197k FW), Style Book: Junior City (7k FW), Sudoku Gridmaster (7k FW), Style Book: Cinnamoroll (4k FW), and Cooking Mama (3k FW). 3DS sales are boosted to 76k, thanks to the strong release of Luigi's Mansion 2 (287k FW), along with smaller releases Pretty Rhythm: My Deco Rainbow Wedding (34k FW) and Castlevania: Lords of Shadow - Mirror of Fate (13k FW).

Week 13 preview: With only some minor releases next week, DS sales explode to over 211k. According to Famitsu and Media Create, 3DS sales fell to about 67k without any major releases this week.

The tally thus far:

DS 06 -- 1,015,603
3DS 13 -- 1,232,961
Adv 3DS +217,358

Week 13! And... something special!

DS 06 -- 211,211
3DS 13 -- 66,788

It's the final week of the first quarter. DS sales continue to skyrocket with only a few small releases, including Xenosaga I & II (15k FW), San-X Land: Theme Park de Asobou! (9k FW), Mar Heaven: Karudea no Akuma (8k FW), and Contact (7k FW). With no new releases in the chart, 3DS sales fall by almost 10k. The DS outsold the 3DS this week by greater than 3-to-1.

Week 14 data is already available (and that update will follow in the next few days), so in place of the usual preview, this time I'm doing a First Quarter Summary.

The 3DS enjoyed an easy lead for the first half of the quarter, with the DS beginning to dominate in the second half. The 3DS rode its Holiday boost into the new year, with its first week of the quarter being its best. Its second-best week was week 6, when Dragon Quest VII 3D was released. The DS's top 5 weeks this quarter were the final 5; the turning point of the quarter was clearly week 9, the week of the DS Lite launch. The 3DS beat the DS in 7 out of 8 weeks before the Lite launch, while the DS won all 5 weeks after.

As I mentioned, the 3DS built up a decent lead for the first two months, with the sales gap peaking in week 8. However, in just 5 weeks since the DS Lite launch, the 3DS's lead fell from nearly 500k to under 100k.

Nevertheless, the overall victor of the first quarter was the 3DS... barely.

FIRST QUARTER END

DS 06 -- 1,226,814
3DS 13 -- 1,299,749
Adv 3DS +72,935

DSlite is unbeatable really. At the start of this year I thought 3DS could do it, but DS is just...

Interesting to see if 3DS can turn it around with the upcoming titles.

No. DS 2006-2007 are unbeatable cause it was doing what Apple did in the West. Touch screen was now, Every Brain training game sold 1 mil + (English training, Eye training, etc..), first 2D mario in 15 years, Nintendo were releasing games very consistently (1 every other week). DS was something new and exciting, 3DS is more like the PS2, all gamers want it, but it won't expand on that audience. I think it will end up with 25 million at the end of its run in Japan.

April Update!

I've decided to turn this into a monthly feature. There just isn't enough to discuss on a weekly basis, especially now that the outcome is a foregone conclusion.

Week 14:

DS sales climbed very slightly this week to 213k with only a small release -- Tenchou: Dark Secret (5k FW). 3DS sales continued their decline to 55k with no noteworthy new releases.

Week 15:

DS sales drop to 189k with two notable releases, Denetsu no Stafi 4 (52k FW) and Touch Detective (5k FW). 3DS declines further to 47k with one noteworthy release, Cardfight!! Vanguard: Ride to Victory (45k FW).

Week 16:

DS sales stay relatively steady at 189k with a couple of small releases, including Zoo Tycoon DS (3k FW). Three versions of Tabi no Yubisashi Kaiwachou also charted this week, for a combined 17k FW sales. 3DS sales were boosted to 73k with the release of Tomodachi Collection: New Life (406k FW).

Week 17:

DS sales skyrocket to 279k, their highest yet this year, with the release of Tetris DS (218k FW). Also released for DS this week were Naruto: Ninja Council 3 (38k FW), Ochaken no Heya DS (11k FW), Nobunaga no Yabou DS (5k FW), and the other two versions of Tabi no Yubisashi Kaiwachou (20k FW combined). 3DS sales fall back down to 56k with only one minor release, Detective Conan: Marionette Symphony (10k FW).

The tally thus far:

DS 06 -- 2,096,408
3DS 13 -- 1,531,249
Adv DS +565,159

The month in review:

DS crushed 3DS in April. The 3DS had a slight edge at the end of March; after 4 weeks, the DS now has a bigger lead than the 3DS has had at any point this year. 3DS couldn't compete with the flood of software releases on the DS.

May preview: 3DS is set to receive Shin Megami Tensei IV and Donkey Kong Country Returns 3D this May, and not much else. Those should keep its sales at decent levels, but nowhere near the consistent 100-200k DS sales, topped off with the release of New Super Mario Bros and nearly 300k hardware sales at the end of the month. The gap could possibly exceed 1 million hardware units in favor of the DS by the end of May.

I've updated the OP with up-to-date numbers through the end of August. Things have been pretty boring for the past few months, so I haven't felt like keeping up with this thread. But with Monster Hunter coming later this month and the Holidays approaching, it will at least be fun to follow. I don't know if I'll get back into the weekly updates, but I think monthly will be fine. I'll try to update the OP every week at the very least.

The tally thus far:

DS 06 -- 5,122,482
3DS 13 -- 2,457,760
Adv DS +2,664,722

Clearly, the DS is dominating. It has sold more than double the 3DS's YTD numbers at this point. Even with its relatively slow September -- averaging about 175k per week -- it doesn't seem likely that the 3DS will be able to manage any kind of comeback until October, when the DS averaged closer to 130k weekly.

I'm going to close the poll, as well. No point voting on that any more! Here are the final numbers from that:

And now we have a new poll!

I'm sorry but this just really shows how out of touch the fanbase here is, that anyone thought the 3DS could top the DS' 2006 is laughable. It's not even *close*.

People buy way too much into the "wait for Pokemon! wait for Mario!" kool-aid and pay no attention to overall brand momenteum.

In general too on these boards (and other gaming fanboards) there's a deep rooted sense of denial over how important things like Brain Training was to the DS and Wii Sports was to the Wii and how that audience has moved away to other devices and Mario/Pokemon aren't replacing that audience because the DS/Wii had those as well.

People definitely got carried away with the poll. That the "absolutely" option got the most votes... clearly they did not understand how big the DS was in 2006.

I made the thread, and I'm pretty sure I voted maybe, possibly even no. It was a long time ago though, and it was obvious by the end of April that the 3DS had no chance.

It has some big games coming, though, so it will still have a banner year.