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Forums - Sales - WiiU vs. last gen and handhelds

Cheebee said:
Mnementh said:
AstroGamer said:
I see the Wii U sales staying at this level until about week 17 or 18 (release of Lego City:Undercover and MH3U respectively) where it will have a spike. Then the sales will have an average slope with more releases and spiking at Wii Fit U which will release in June maybe late May. The summer will then, gradually reduce the sales slope til Wii Party U comes out and then, a drought of games will come slowing the slope to about the average slope which would continue for rest of its year Coming at 8.5 million to 9 million (this is excluding the possibility that Windwaker HD comes out before the other 2 systems)

Do you mean 8.5 to 9 million in 2013 alone or LTD (including the 2M from 2012)? If it is LTD, it seems possible. WiiU is selling above the levels of the Vita, which did 3.5M last year. That would project it at say 5 million for 2013. If we assume, that WiiFitU,Zelda Windwaker HD and MH3U are better systemsellers than the games Vita had last year, it would mean 6-7 million are possible. Adding the 2 million would mean your prediction may come true (if the games really sell more systems than Vitas games did). If you expect it for 2013 alone I have doubts about that prediciton.

Don't forget about all the other big titles coming this year. I fully expect Mario Kart to launch this year, and the next 3D Mario seems very likely too. Those should be the biggest hitters. Then there's also Pikmin 3, and I would think Yarn Yoshi would come out sometime in 2013 as well. Things like Wonderful 101, Rayman, Game & Wario, Just Dance 5 and more should all see releases throughout this year. Plus any unannounced games (which I'm sure we'll see. Perhaps Retro's project?) and all the smaller titles and eShop games. By the end of this year, WiiU will have quite an amazing library. I would say 5 million in 2013 is an insanely low prediction.

Don't forget the Vita also had big games released. I'm already generous in thinking, that WiiFitU and MH3U (and yes, probably Mario Kart) are bigger system-sellers.



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Mnementh said:

Don't forget the Vita also had big games released. I'm already generous in thinking, that WiiFitU and MH3U (and yes, probably Mario Kart) are bigger system-sellers.

Yes, I agree, but at the same time I'm inclined to say that Vita had none on the scale or with the pure selling power of stuff like Mario and Mario Kart.

Also, @ bolded: that's laughable. Mario Kart is practically the definition of a system seller. There aren't many games that could be considered bigger system sellers, on any system. Especially not on Vita.

MH3 won't be a system seller. Perhaps in Japan, to an extent, but an upscaled port of a last-gen game's not going to be that big in the West. WiiFit remains to be seen, those games were insane on Wii, but I doubt it'll be as big now. Still, should sell millions, just not tens of millions imo, like its predecessors. But you can bet your grandma MK will be a system seller unlike most others games out there - regardless of platform. The DS and Wii versions sold over 20 and 30 million, respectively. Meanwhile, the 3DS version, which came out a bit over a year ago, already sits at 7.5 million.



Nintendo Network ID: Cheebee   3DS Code: 2320 - 6113 - 9046

 

Updated OP with this weeks data. Looks like launch-aligned the WiiU-line will crash into the PS360 lines in one or two months or so.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

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Updated OP with this weeks data and also included US as first regional breakdown. There were some adjustments, WiiU-numbers got slightly adjusted up. With these adjustments WiiU already catched the first million in the US last week. Also something to notice: The sales were going up this week. I have no idea why. The Nintendo Direct should have impacted last week if anything, so it has to be something else. The effect is strongest in europe, noticable in the US, while Japan is in normal decline. Has anyone an explanation?



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024

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Updated OP with this weeks numbers. I cutted the weekly sales graph at 500K (global) and 150K (USA), so that the trend is clearer to say. We don't see european launch of the PS3 and holiday sales this way, they are simply much higher.

Also as notice: at least the US-numbers for WiiU are significantly adjusted down this week.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024

10 years greatest game event!

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man-bear-pig said:
Mnementh said:

Well, as here is a sales-site and the new gen has started with the first combatant (WiiU) I think it is time to work with numbers and create graphs. Yay!

 

By the 100th week I expect the Wii U to be above the 360 and below the PS3 on this graph.

Definitely not. The dynamic shows that it will be under both by week 30-35. Monster Hunter isn't gonna boost hardware enough to prevent that.



ryuzaki57 said:
man-bear-pig said:
Mnementh said:

Well, as here is a sales-site and the new gen has started with the first combatant (WiiU) I think it is time to work with numbers and create graphs. Yay!

 

By the 100th week I expect the Wii U to be above the 360 and below the PS3 on this graph.

Definitely not. The dynamic shows that it will be under both by week 30-35. Monster Hunter isn't gonna boost hardware enough to prevent that.


HAsn't monster hunter already been released for it in Japan?



ryuzaki57 said:
man-bear-pig said:

By the 100th week I expect the Wii U to be above the 360 and below the PS3 on this graph.

Definitely not. The dynamic shows that it will be under both by week 30-35. Monster Hunter isn't gonna boost hardware enough to prevent that.

Currently yes. To be fair, as MBP wrote this, it was January 6 and we had only week one (or no at all, don't remember) for WiiU.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

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teigaga said:

HAsn't monster hunter already been released for it in Japan?

Yes, but it will come in the west in march, alongside Lego City and Need for Speed. As MH isn't that big in the West, ryuzaki57 might be right about only a moderate boost.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

Mnementh said:

Well, global sales, the launch is aligned for each of the consoles. I have taken 100 weeks for the last gen from VGChartz and we can see how the WiiU is managing to hold itself against it. Note that PS3 launched later in Europe, this is clearly visible near week 20.

To get an even better picture, the weekly sales of the first year of every console:

 

How will the WiiU go in the long-term?

WiiU...

Actually this is a duplicate thread but this one is better : very detailed/interesting charts. Thanks Mnementh. I suppose the two above are full first year (jan. to dec.) and not from launch day?