According to VGC software total. Top 10 3DS software already is ~30M. Meanwhile, the entire library of Vita is below 9M.

Can 3DS keep this up for the rest of its lifetime?

with the right support, it can.

You think it will need all ten?

More than likely it could happen, no Pokemon yet, for example.

Just no, keep dreaming tho.

Well... the DS top 10 has sold (at a glance) about 176 million LTD. The PSP has sold about 280 million software units to date. So... it's not an easy thing to do by any means, but it's certainly possible depending on how big the 3DS's blockbusters are and how hard the Vita flops.

It's far too early to call. The DS had six games with over 15 million sales. Right now the 3DS has two games that will most likely exceed that amount and two more that have some small chance of doing so. Pokémon will be big, but will it be big enough?

It hardly matters. The fact that we are seriously having this discussion at all tells you everything you need to know about the state of the 3DS/Vita war. It lasted 38 minutes.

yes it will

Yes, because we can only track physical games. I'd expect Sony down the line to make a digital only revision. Heck even now a fair percent of game sales on it are digital.

That's possible, but I wouldn't place any bets quite yet.

PSP top 1000 = 271.4 M
DS top 25 = 255 M
DS top 10 (my lazy approx) = 180 M

I honestly don't see it happening.

If 3DS does exactly as well as DS, we still need Vita total game sales to be 2/3rds of the PSP's