Mario thinks it's hilarious that a racing game with his name on it can sell 33 million copies and have a 34% attach rate and then people wonder if a console he is exclusively on might fail =D

So how would that reflect upon the N64, the 3DS, the PS3...

The market is very different now than it was. That expectation will always lead to disappointment, it's a good job most people don't think like that.

Another thing to consider is that, even if sales drop to abysmal levels, Nintendo probably won't let the Wii U fail ...

While I doubt Nintendo would want to repeat this strategy, if they found that sales were tracking below their expectations I wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo would use an aggressive price cut to attract sales like they did with the 3DS; and if the price reduction happened alongside some big game releases the Wii U's fortunes could switch almost overnight.

I guess you know the answer, if you know the sales numbers.

A company should always gain, not stagnate or even worse, lose marketshare/income.

It always makes me wonder why Nintendo and Nintendo fans and anti-fans make such a big deal about the importance of third parties. In reality, Nintendo can take first place this generation without any significant third party software. Nintendo should not hold back, kick out their heavy guns, expand their operations, and push more heavily to dominate the software market. Nintendo was the number one most successful publisher of RPGs in the world last generation - they should establish themselves as THE RPG brand as Squaresoft & Enix did 15-20 years ago when they buried everyone else between the two of them.

Make a Metroid game that makes Mass Effect look silly, make a Xeno-game that exceeds anything that Square has ever done. Take over publishing for all future Dragon Quest and Monster Hunter games. Make a Pokemon MMO and rule the online space. Nintendo needs to be really aggressive, and acquire more publishing rights and depend less on passive tactics to make third parties happy. Another thing, publish and PUSH for the heavy success of those quirky type games that the hardest Nintendo fans love, expand their audiences to the hundreds of thousands and maybe even millions.

Because most people here don't think what is good for the company, they think what is good for them.

Nintendo probably can't be the dominant platform on the market without third party support, but (at this point in time) they can attract a massive userbase and be amazingly profitable regardless of what third party publishers do. To put numbers to it, Nintendo sold roughly 2/3 as much software for the DS and Wii combined as Sony, Microsoft and all third party publishers sold for the PSP, PS3 and XBox 360 combined.

Probably had pretty close to a 34% attach rate, though.

Just checked- it's 6.95/21.74 or a 32% attach rate

It's spookily similar for the N64; 9.87/32.93 or a 30% attach rate. 

Using this, we can assume that whatever the WiiU sells, the Mario Kart for it will sell about 30-35% of it. 

The 3DS seems to have closer to a 25% attach rate, but still selling.

Funny when some guys asking have anyone expecting the Wii U to sell better than the Wii when the whole vg charts forum was full of ninty will dominate, The wii u will sell over 150 m lifetime and sony and microsoft should not release a ps4 or x box next becausye they are doomed already threads. And yet the people are wondering that all the doom threads are incoming. Thats the price for such an arrogance. Maybe next time you all make some less fanglassy predictions and maybe such threads wouldnt exist.

But to answer the question from the op: If the Wii U really will be a fail ( and this strongly depends how much it must sell to be not a failure in your eyes)tha the only question will be what will game companys support instead?

Personally i think the Wii U will not be a failure if it only sell less than the wii or only 40 M.
Hell even the ps3 is not a failure when it sell less than PS1 and PS2.So why should the Wii u be a failure.

Oh and on a side note also nintendo need third party. The Game cube and n64 showed that. So better put your fanglasses of. Gamecube and N64 had alot of Mario, Mario Kart, mario Party, Super Maruio bros, Super Smash bros, paper marion, zelda, Pikmin, Animal Crossing and so on and so on.

Third party are very important for all three companys.