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Another thing to consider is that, even if sales drop to abysmal levels, Nintendo probably won't let the Wii U fail ...

While I doubt Nintendo would want to repeat this strategy, if they found that sales were tracking below their expectations I wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo would use an aggressive price cut to attract sales like they did with the 3DS; and if the price reduction happened alongside some big game releases the Wii U's fortunes could switch almost overnight.