Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Current vs Last, a Console Sales Story (COMPLETE!)

Final Smash: Should somone one do this at the start of every gen?

yes 65 75.58%
 
no 3 3.49%
 
show me the money! 7 8.14%
 
Total:75
superchunk said:

It's flatlining, get the defibrulator. Better yet, what game(s) can shock it back into growth and when are they releasing?



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superchunk said:
ok updated with jan12 numbers. It should be clear that WiiU is not going to meet Nintendo's forecasts now as the retailers won't allow them to put that much into the channel.

In fact, I'm thinking it will be at least down to 4m shipped by end of March at best vs the 5.5m Nintendo planned.

Good prediction as that is exactly what Nintendo changed their forecast to.  Though I suspect they won't actually make it to 4 million through March.



Ok, I updated the info based on the investor's meeting and I took another snapshot of the poll.

Its interesting to note the change in attitude from holidays sales, to post holiday sales, and what it will be now with a lower shipped estimation.

For reference, I voted "maybe" and "no" in the first two polls.



I had to vote "maybe" this time around again... they have to ship 1 million units in 2 months, but if the sales keep on in this pace.... Man, this is just awful ^^



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Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

I said no. I think they'll miss this estimate too, albeit by a close margin.



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superchunk said:
Ok, I updated the info based on the investor's meeting and I took another snapshot of the poll.

Its interesting to note the change in attitude from holidays sales, to post holiday sales, and what it will be now with a lower shipped estimation.

For reference, I voted "maybe" and "no" in the first two polls.

I would've voted "no" 5 months ago



Yeah, my gut says they'll miss even there lowered estimate - slightly. What with no games coming out to boost sales and growing rumours and hype for Durango/Orbis. If you weren't already decided on getting a WiiU there's nothing between now and March to convince you.



 

Its gonna be a slow burn for nintendo untill they get out some first party games. This is a great system and i think it wiill catch fire with the general public at some point its just going to take some time. The market will need to be saturated with ps3s and 360s which it is getting close as u can see over the last couple of holiday seasons. The next xbox and ps4 need to hit market. This will give the wii u a natural market correction. Instead of being the most expensive new system they will likely become the cheapest new system. Next nintendo rolls out a few first party titles that everyone recognizes and they look amazing with this cool looking touchscreen controler,and its the cheapest. It will sale gangbusters. Timeing is everything and it may be holiday season next year before this thing really takes off but i have no doubt that it will become a hit.



If the sales trend continues like this I expect Nintendo to miss their mark, maybe not by much though. I hope the game releases increase the sales.



Nintendo and PC gamer

Even this new forecast is too high, it can still drop more in weekly sales and has a long way to go to reach anywhere near 3.5 million sellthrough. At this point, managing 4 million shipped will be impossible, the stock is overflowing in most stores, they simply can't force their surplus onto retailers and warehouses unless they move in retail and there's an actual need for more stock.

At this rate, they'll likely miss the shipments by as much as 5-600k and will be lucky to move significantly past 3 million in sellthrough, far away from the intial mark which would likely be 5 million (assuming a 5.5 million shipment total and normal sellthrough rates this time of year). The demand is simply not there and appears not to be forthcoming for some time either.

After the Wii shortages, who would have thought that excess stock right after launch could ever be a problem for Nintendo? I honestly expected the Wii U to perform better than it has (even if I was being somewhat conservative).