I said no. I think they'll miss this estimate too, albeit by a close margin.

Yeah, my gut says they'll miss even there lowered estimate - slightly. What with no games coming out to boost sales and growing rumours and hype for Durango/Orbis. If you weren't already decided on getting a WiiU there's nothing between now and March to convince you.

Its gonna be a slow burn for nintendo untill they get out some first party games. This is a great system and i think it wiill catch fire with the general public at some point its just going to take some time. The market will need to be saturated with ps3s and 360s which it is getting close as u can see over the last couple of holiday seasons. The next xbox and ps4 need to hit market. This will give the wii u a natural market correction. Instead of being the most expensive new system they will likely become the cheapest new system. Next nintendo rolls out a few first party titles that everyone recognizes and they look amazing with this cool looking touchscreen controler,and its the cheapest. It will sale gangbusters. Timeing is everything and it may be holiday season next year before this thing really takes off but i have no doubt that it will become a hit.

If the sales trend continues like this I expect Nintendo to miss their mark, maybe not by much though. I hope the game releases increase the sales.

Even this new forecast is too high, it can still drop more in weekly sales and has a long way to go to reach anywhere near 3.5 million sellthrough. At this point, managing 4 million shipped will be impossible, the stock is overflowing in most stores, they simply can't force their surplus onto retailers and warehouses unless they move in retail and there's an actual need for more stock.

At this rate, they'll likely miss the shipments by as much as 5-600k and will be lucky to move significantly past 3 million in sellthrough, far away from the intial mark which would likely be 5 million (assuming a 5.5 million shipment total and normal sellthrough rates this time of year). The demand is simply not there and appears not to be forthcoming for some time either.

After the Wii shortages, who would have thought that excess stock right after launch could ever be a problem for Nintendo? I honestly expected the Wii U to perform better than it has (even if I was being somewhat conservative).

Really looking at that trend... without some crazy change in marketing, content, price, etc... WiiU should has a hard time even reaching 3m sold and with that I doubt there will be 1m on shelves. More likely only ~500k. Meaning shipped is going to have a hard time reaching 4m. For them to make this estimation, they have to have something else in the plans.

Based on Iwata's most recent statements, there is no price cut coming as its already losing money per unit.
We also know that no big games are launching before March and only one month of a couple new games can't be their plan to surge sales.

There has to be something planned for February if they expect to increase sales to a level where 4m is plausible.

Even if they manage only 60% of their initial forecast (assuming an estimated 3 million sellthrough as opposed to an estimated 5 million), a lot of people will continue saying that there is nothing to worry about.

OP updated with Jan26th data. Looks like Wii U is bottoming out in the 30k to 35k range for now. Needs some serious advertising and of course more content. I still have a few games I need to buy, but obviously for many others what is there is not enough.

It looks like Wii U is selling way less than PS3/360 did back then. I have no feelings towards this fact, as it has been made clear to me that some opinions are not tolerated.

I hope you keep updating this thread, it will be even worse than your predictions.