I think it will sell between 50 and 150 million depending on how awesome the tablet controller is.

I think this is a sound argument. Problem is if Nintendo can keep the momentum after the holidays and keep it perpetually sold out while MSony start to unveil their next consoles.

Awww only 55 million projected after 4 years...bummer.

Yea that 350 price points probobly doesn't look that attractive in january/february.Luckily the 300 base model should still do well

5.5-6 million sold through the first March is basically the standard for any Nintendo console.

They forecast 6 million for the GameCube through March 2002 (though they failed), and a similar number for Wii through March 2007 (they hit it).

I think Wii U will have a good first holiday season and a solid first year with some ups and down, but I'm not sure if this is a platform built for a 5+ year life cycle. I think it will start to fade by about year 3.

After 4 years:

X360 - 36 million
PS3 - 46 million

I used sarcasm on you. It was very effective ;P

The only thing is I don't expect the Wii U to have the strong second half life cycle sales. 360/PS3 were really cutting edge product for the time they launched in, lending themselves to a very long life cycle.

I know it was sarcasm.  I threw those numbers out there just for comparison for those that were going to ask.   Because at some point, someone always asks.