i think we are all expecting adjustments, and from what i can tell. the gap won't go below 1m.

Hummmm... you said before holidays... so 1.5 million?

Yeap my comment was all out of context... I guess to go back to the March 2012 Gap (2.5 million).

The PS3 is going to finish 1.3M-1.4M ahead of the 360 this year. Of course, I got a feeling we'll see some adjustments to the EU numbers after Nintendo releases its charts for Q4 2012, so it may be slightly higher.

For 2013, I can see PS3 outselling 360 by ~1.5M-1.6M, including selling the same, or even more than it, during the holidays. So the gap will either be taken down to next to nothing or it will be gone completely.

Oh, forgot about the Jan 5th prediction. Let's see, the week of the 22nd should be a tie, given increased sales for the PS3 in EU and Japan. The week of the 29th, the PS3 will easily win that. And if it wins it my as much as it did last year, that would take the gap to ~1.86M. Then the PS3 will, again, easily win the week of Jan 5th. If it's by as much as last year, it should take the gap to ~1.69M. Of course, if the PS3 keeps selling so well compared to the 360, the gap on Jan 5th could very well be ~1.5M.

Agree with kowen regarding the gap by march, though possibly closer to 1m than 1.5.
Year 2012, they closed gap ~500k by march, with only One Piece boosting sales in Japan.
This year has god of war, sly, metal gear rising, allstars release in jp.

This all depends on december numbers though...NPD could paint a very different picture, and a price cut early for 360 could change things.

Oh, it will definitely be closer to 1M.  Like I posted above, if the PS3 outperforms the 360 by as much as it did last year, than by Jan 5th the gap will already be at ~1.69M.  With how well the PS3 is selling against the 360 this holiday season, I don't think it perfoming even better the last few weeks is out of the question, so ~1.5 by Jan 5th is not out of the question.  Even if it performs like last year, and the beginning of this year, by March the gap should be decreased to at least ~1.11M.  Now, if Sony drops the price of the PS3 to $199 before the end of the first quarter, then it should definitely be able to ship that down to ~1M or under.  Of course, I don't expect them to drop the price til E3 in June.

Well, yes, I've figure that in, and even with 360 generally having a lower %drop this yoy change, since they sold less units, continuing a 30% drop actually wouldn't result in much of a difference between ps3's 22% drop and 360's, so the jan-mar yoy could be the exact same, which is why I agree with your numbers.

Further, I've factored in the upcoming gears release. 2012 gap change was 500k, I think it's going to be just slightly greater than that though. Just my theory. It's also my theory that MS is going to do something regarding pricing soon, possibly around that gears release....and personally I think 360 sales should be slightly higher than our december numbers are showing, and likely kinect sales as well.

I don't expect a ps3 price drop until august at the earliest, with the way finances are going right now, and the forex greatly jumping in their favor, chancing to earn them a lot of breathing space this year, I'd say it's a mistake to lower the price. Instead, they should build value-based incentive earnings potential, ie; ps+ free for a month or three, bundling of something like GT5 prologue.....and get this....free vita games.

Yes, that's right. I think that you should get coupons for free vita games when you buy a ps3.

I think ps3 is too high in europe, others and japan, and it's too low in americas.

I think 360 is also too high in europe, and too low enough in americas.

I think 360 will likely be adjusted up by 200k or so, and ps3 will remain the same, or maybe 30k up or something minimal like that.

Vita on the other hand I think is undertracked by a good margin.

Hey, did Sony ever announce their Black friday numbers?