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Agree with kowen regarding the gap by march, though possibly closer to 1m than 1.5.
Year 2012, they closed gap ~500k by march, with only One Piece boosting sales in Japan.
This year has god of war, sly, metal gear rising, allstars release in jp.

This all depends on december numbers though...NPD could paint a very different picture, and a price cut early for 360 could change things.