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Forums - Politics Discussion - 2012 Election Center: The Main Event - Obama Wins

 

Of the two main candidates for president, who will win?

Barack Obama 245 75.85%
 
Mitt Romney 73 22.60%
 
Total:318
noname2200 said:
Looks like Nate Silver was pretty spot on again.


Indeed. Sam Wang as well. Polls were using a +6 democratic turnout and sure enough that's what happened. The reason I doubted polls throughout was because I couldn't fathom +6 dem turnout rates, especially after reading Pew Research Center's stats on likely voters (76% republican to 62% democrat). Truly fascinating how accurate polls/models have become. Congrats to Obama, now work toward your promises from 2008 and everyone will be pleased.



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badgenome said:
Kasz216 said:

EDIT: No wait, they voted for statehood?   A lot of shit must of changed in 3 years.  I had a co-worker from puerto rico, and she said it was largely splitting to where it would stay how it was...

They did, but it was a meaningless referendum. Since Fortuno lost the governorship, I imagine they'll stick with the status quo.

Actually a lot DIDN'T change. 

It was a legislative trick.


Puerto Rico had a two part ballot.

 

A)  Do you want to change diplomatic status with the US.

Passed with 54%.

B)  Assuming A passes... which of these would you prefer.

Statehood  Passed with 67%(?)

More Autonomy

Independence.

 

 

It'd say it's EXTREMELY likely that the group that favors Statehood still isn't a majority, and that a lot of the voters in the first group were the Seperationists... and that most people would perfer statehood only if forced to give up it's current status.



Wonktonodi said:
smroadkill15 said:
Congratz to Obama. I'm just disappointed Prop 30 didn't pass in CA. Everyone hears taxes go up even if on those who make 250k or more a year, and a small sales tax, then everyone gets a giant bug up their ass because they hear taxes will go up. I feel bad for all the students and teachers. It's going to be very rough now to get into classes.

prop 30 is passing

But narrowly. And I think it needs 55%, no?



Kasz216 said:

Actually a lot DIDN'T change. 

It was a legislative trick.


Puerto Rico had a two part ballot.

 

A)  Do you want to change diplomatic status with the US.

Passed with 54%.

B)  Assuming A passes... which of these would you prefer.

Statehood  Passed with 67%(?)

More Autonomy

Independence.

 

 

It'd say it's EXTREMELY likely that the group that favors Statehood still isn't a majority, and that a lot of the voters in the first group were the Seperationists... and that most people would perfer statehood only if forced to give up it's current status.

Yeah, I mentioned that in my last post. Basically, the shitty media is just being lazy so they can get the desired (read: interesting) headline of, "Puerto Rico votes for statehood omgggggg!!!!!!" What else is new?



@Puerto Rico

Technically speaking a clear majority isn't required, and technically speaking a majority isn't required at all. The act of democratic self determination isn't guaranteed. Though the United States has a tradition of accepting the verdict of the local population. They are not legally speaking of a right to dictate anything. This is simply put the purview of the federal government and the Congress. They have every right to force statehood, grant statehood, or even cast out a territory.

That said Congress can accept these results as a clear mandate if they so choose. Which logically speaking both parties have a great deal of incentive to do. Republicans need to recuperate the image their party portrays with Hispanic voting blocks, and voting for expanding the Union to incorporate a new Spanish speaking state would be a strong move towards inclusiveness. While Democrats would need to be in favor of statehood to maintain their current image, and to reward as they see it one of their strongest voting blocks.

Basically voting for admission would be a mutually beneficial vote. Both parties stand to gain politically, and it is just plain popular with the public when the nation expands. Congress desperately needs a popularity boost. So as it stands I can't see how Puerto Rico doesn't end up becoming a state. There are too many pluses, and just far too few minuses. Anyway it seems to be almost inevitable. If you believe the narrative that has been perpetuated about the American Revolution. Such a situation shouldn't be able to stand indefinitely.

Anyway I wouldn't be shocked if this moved forward in the lame duck session. The members going out might well see this as a accomplishment to hang their hats on. Just like don't ask don't tell in 2010, or Somalia was for the first Bush. When members go out they want to leave on a high note, and this looks like something they wouldn't even have to fight hard for.



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noname2200 said:
Wonktonodi said:
smroadkill15 said:
Congratz to Obama. I'm just disappointed Prop 30 didn't pass in CA. Everyone hears taxes go up even if on those who make 250k or more a year, and a small sales tax, then everyone gets a giant bug up their ass because they hear taxes will go up. I feel bad for all the students and teachers. It's going to be very rough now to get into classes.

prop 30 is passing

But narrowly. And I think it needs 55%, no?

Narrowly, but it's passing.

http://www.mercurynews.com/elections/ci_21945748

Overcoming decades of anti-tax sentiment in California, Gov. Jerry Brown's Proposition 30 -- billed as a tax hike to rescue the state's schools -- narrowly won Tuesday.




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Wonktonodi said:
smroadkill15 said:
Congratz to Obama. I'm just disappointed Prop 30 didn't pass in CA. Everyone hears taxes go up even if on those who make 250k or more a year, and a small sales tax, then everyone gets a giant bug up their ass because they hear taxes will go up. I feel bad for all the students and teachers. It's going to be very rough now to get into classes.

prop 30 is passing

Really? Last time I checked it was losing, that's really good to hear. I haven't lost all hope for Californians after all ;)



dsgrue3 said:
noname2200 said:
Looks like Nate Silver was pretty spot on again.


Indeed. Sam Wang as well. Polls were using a +6 democratic turnout and sure enough that's what happened. The reason I doubted polls throughout was because I couldn't fathom +6 dem turnout rates, especially after reading Pew Research Center's stats on likely voters (76% republican to 62% democrat). Truly fascinating how accurate polls/models have become. Congrats to Obama, now work toward your promises from 2008 and everyone will be pleased.

Its almost like pollsters actually know what they're doing. : )

Edit: Where are you getting those numbers for Pew? I can't find them.



the_dengle said:
the2real4mafol said:

Yeah i can't believe how the number of votes vary by state. Places like Montana and the dakotas have just 3 votes compared to Texas, 39 votes and California, 55 votes, not fair at all. The popular vote is the only thing that should replace the electoral college 

Actually.... According to the 2010 census, Montana's population is under one million. It represents about 0.32% of the total US population. However, its 3 electoral votes amount to about 0.56% of all electoral votes. The electoral college actually gives less populous states such as Montana an advantage. To continue, South Dakota represents only 0.26% of the US population, and North Dakota represents only 0.21%. But both of those states still have 3 electoral votes, or the same 0.56% as Montana -- this more than doubles their pull in the election with the electoral college over a simple popular vote. It sounds like a small difference, but the 3 states together would combine for about 0.79% of the total US population, while carrying 9 total electoral votes, about 1.67% of the total.

The electoral college was created as a compromise to appease those pushing for states' rights and state power. Maybe it's not the best way to do things -- maybe a simple, total popular vote would be better. But there's no arguing that the electoral college gives more weight to the vote of a single voter in Wyoming than one in California. (California, by the way, represents 11.91% of the US population, yet carries about 10.22% of the electoral votes).

You can argue that but I don't think its fair on some states, especially those who vote for one party all the time, like if you vote democrat in texas you are practically wasting your vote, even though it's a major party! I'm not denying what you said but I think it's time to get rid of the electoral college system in favour of the popular vote. 



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Despite Obama's win i wish they did the clean sweep and got the house alongside the senate, that would of been awesome. But does it matter? Which is more important for the democrats to have, the house or the senate?



Xbox One, PS4 and Switch (+ Many Retro Consoles)

'When the people are being beaten with a stick, they are not much happier if it is called the people's stick'- Mikhail Bakunin

Prediction: Switch will sell better than Wii U Lifetime Sales by Jan 1st 2018