Mazty said:
How did Obama 180 on foreign policy? |
The one that comes to mind quickist is Libya.
Candidate Obama would think President Obama commited an impeachable offense. I'd think that qualfies as at least a little bit of a flip flop.

Which presidential candidate will you vote for? | |||
| Barack Obama | 356 | 55.89% | |
| Mitt Romney | 137 | 21.51% | |
| Gary Johnson | 38 | 5.97% | |
| Jill Stein | 15 | 2.35% | |
| Somebody else | 87 | 13.66% | |
| Total: | 633 | ||
Mazty said:
How did Obama 180 on foreign policy? |
The one that comes to mind quickist is Libya.
Candidate Obama would think President Obama commited an impeachable offense. I'd think that qualfies as at least a little bit of a flip flop.

Kasz216 said:
Ross Perot was popular because he more or less played to the middle and the "common man." Essentially he targeted Libretarians, balancing the budget, Union Democrats and the anti-free trade vote in general. Clinton and Bush both being Free Trade at a time when everyone was afraid Japan was going to buy the country... part of stealing Perot's momentum was Clinton making some anti free trade promises he later disregarded.
He didn't really start spending his own money until after he reentered the race after he left because "Republicans had compromising pictures of his daughter and threatened to release them if he didn't drop out." He actually thought spending money on advertising was a huge waste of time when he could just give interviews to tv shows.
"Evening up" foreign trade, balancing the budget, simplifying taxes. These are all themes that both parties still pay lip service too because of how powerul those positions resonate.
Strengthening the war on drugs and electronic town hall voting on all issues i'm guessing haven't held up as well. |
You obviously haven't been paying attention. I like how you're just making stuff up.
GameOver22 said:
Seems that Perot ended up spending $26 of his own money in the first two weeks of October alone ($46 million as of Oct. 14). He also said he expected to spend $60 millions. Its also important to remember that election were much different back then (much less money). Just for reference, Clinton and Bush each accepted public funding and were limited to $55 million. Granted, they also had the parties raising money for them as well. http://www.nytimes.com/1992/10/24/us/1992-campaign-campaign-finances-despite-economy-clinton-sets-record-for-funds.html I think this shows that Perot's viability was largely a product of his ability to spend money. I mean he single-handedly was able to outspend the public funding Clinton and Bush received. Finally, I want to emphasize that campaign spending has only increased since then. If Perot tried to run a campaign by spending $60 million today, he would likely be overshadowed by the big guns. Also, even with all that spending, Perot wasn't able to win any electoral votes even with 19% of the vote (kind of shows the importance of campaign strategy). KInd of gives an idea of the increase campaign spending http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/totals.php?cycle=2008 |

TheShape31 said:
You obviously haven't been paying attention. I like how you're just making stuff up.
|
I don't think I'm the one not paying attention or the one making stuff up.
If you scroll back up and look at the graph you quoted... you would note that October of 1992 is listed in that graph as "Re-Entry".
Also, that this was in fact his lowest time in the polling, where he was simply trying to gain back support for dropping out which made Ross Perot look erratic.
Before he started spending all kinds of money he polled extremely high. 39% at it's height, with Clinton and Bush 25% a piece. (rest undecided.)
He pulled well quite a bit before the graph starts as well. It just starts where it does because it's focusing on when he officially entered the race.
Perot was popular well before he committed.
So yeah.....
might want to look into a mirror on that one.

| GameOver22 said: I think your using the term feasible (i mean possible/capable) differently from me. They might be statistical outliers(you are dealing with a very small sample size though), but that doesn't make them meaningless or inconsequential. I would also include the 1824 election in this discussion although its a bit more complicated. Point is, they are outcomes that occur in the real world, and there is no reason to assume it cannot happen in this election. Statisically speaking, the winner of the popular vote and the electoral college are usually the same, but this is far from a necessary result. Essentially, and this has been my point all along, there is no causal connection between the popular vote and electoral victory, and I'll reiterate, this is why candidates focus on battleground states. They don't care about winning the popular vote because it doesn't determine electoral victory. In all truthfulness, the fact that the popular vote and electoral victory usually coincide is nothing more than a statistical artifact and has zero explanatory power. You say you can predict 27/30 (don't know where 30 came from) electoral winners by using the popular vote. Well, I can predict 30/30 using the electoral college. Point is, why use the popular vote to determine the electoral winner when there is a much better method available, namely, using the electoral college, since, you know, the electoral college actually determines the winner? There's a reason why people are focusing on the polls in swing states rather than the national polls. |
I chose 30 to represent common era. It was somewhat arbitrary. Could be expanded or contracted. 30 out of 56 elections isn't a small sample size when polling services' sample sizes are about 1000 people out of 300 million. THAT's a small sample.
1824 I didn't include because it was decided by the House.
If your argument is that it is possible to win the popular and lose the electoral, then I agree. That's indisputable. If that was your only point, why didn't you say so instead of continuing with this idea that the popular vote isn't a determination of anything?
"why use the popular vote to determine the electoral winner when there is a much better method available, namely, using the electoral college"
True enough, but I would argue that it's easier to poll nationally than electorally.
gergroy said:
You are confusing terms, that is not what democratic means. There is a big difference between a democracy and a republic, you should goggle it. The US is a republic. |
It is a republic as it has no monarchy, but it is democratic as it has elections
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dsgrue3 said:
I posted straight from the site, dude. The polls are from the 24th. Stop being such a pedant, that's the information they have. I didn't DISCLUDE information, I included what they had. Real Clear Politics isn't remotely conservative either. It assembles almost all the polls, which would sway it liberal if anything. Swing state polls clearly show the same race since the first debate, which is momemtum for Romney. Any other notion is, quite frankly, ridiculous. Your bias and obtuseness to facts is astouding. Keep dreaming.
|
First off, I do think calling someone obtuse is technically against the rules. 2ndly my main confidence against the popular vote comes from two university models that predict the presidency that both make aggregates of the polls to make a more accurate picture of the popular vote. Both methods were used to pick the last election within 1-2 % accuracy concerning the popular vote.The Princeton model was dead on.
Nate Silver: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/
Princeton: http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/23/ro-mentum/
Now, the popular vote polls you mention are mostly from polls taken during times before 10/22/2012 the date of the final debate. In the next coming days, polls that only include days before the debate will come out. The final debate is believed to have little impact, yet it also appears any momentum Romney gained from the first debate has stopped after the last two debates.
In calling, Real Clear Politics conservative, I mean they are the most conservative in terms of giving states to any candidate. Therefore, it is often the one most cited by conservatives just as the gallop poll outliers are the polls most often mentioned by conservatives. If you dare to take a peak at even the fairly balanced CNN polls they are more liberal in calling states safe for each candidate and show a clear Obama advantage.

chocoloco said:
First off, I do think calling someone obtuse is technically against the rules. 2ndly my main confidence against the popular vote comes from two university models that predict the presidency that both make aggregates of the polls to make a more accurate picture of the popular vote. Both methods were used to pick the last election within 1-2 % accuracy concerning the popular vote.The Princeton model was dead on. Nate Silver: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/ Princeton: http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/23/ro-mentum/ Now, the popular vote polls you mention are mostly from polls taken during times before 10/22/2012 the date of the final debate. In the next coming days, polls that only include days before the debate will come out. The final debate is believed to have little impact, yet it also appears any momentum Romney gained from the first debate has stopped after the last two debates. In calling, Real Clear Politics conservative, I mean they are the most conservative in terms of giving states to any candidate. Therefore, it is often the one most cited by conservatives just as the gallop poll outliers are the polls most often mentioned by conservatives. If you dare to take a peak at even the fairly balanced CNN polls they are more liberal in calling states safe for each candidate and show a clear Obama advantage. |
Why don't you let the mods decide if referring to someone as obtuse is against the rules, okay?
You want polls that include the 25th? Fine:
| RCP Average | 10/15 - 10/25 | -- | -- | 47.9 | 47.0 | Romney +0.9 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/23 - 10/25 | 1500 LV | 3.0 | 50 | 47 | Romney +3 |
| ABC News/Wash Post | 10/22 - 10/25 | 1382 LV | 3.0 | 49 | 48 | Romney +1 |
| Gallup | 10/19 - 10/25 | 2700 LV | 2.0 | 51 | 46 | Romney +5 |
I agree with you about RCP being very conservative for calling states favorable to one candidate. However, this is as a result of an assembly of so many polling services that it does make more sense to leave it that way. Most polls tend to have +/- 3 for accuracy. CNN does not even list their margin of error. Laughably ignorant. Otherwise I think CNN is faily close to the middle politically.
Nate Silver has the popular vote at 50-48 Obama. That alone refutes any further research into that source.
The princeton one has Obama tracking up electorally in recent days/weeks. This is simply untrue and contrary to what every other source has been stipulating.
The problem with some of the polls you've probably seen is if Obama/Romney is polling +2, they give that state to the candidate. What they don't tell you is that their margin of error is +/- 3 making the assertion that a state is for one candidate over another completely false.
Slimebeast said:
I don't think it's about the money, it's about the attitude. Romney has the right attitude. The current administration is too soft. All these dictatorships, China, Iran, Russia, North Korea, the Palestinians, and actually most members of the UN, won't thank America if America is soft and overly fair. You need to wear hard gloves against these type of nations. History never thanks the soft. Obama betrayed Czech Republic and Poland by abandoning the European missile shield in his pathetic attempt to suck up to Russia, only to gain nothing in return. Obama is too soft on illegal immigrants flooding the USA and if he wins he will implement a huge moratorium about illegals gaining US citizenship. Obama tries to convince Iran to abandon its nuclear program through negotiations, which is absolutely laughable when not even sanctions would work. War is the only option. The current administration has been embarrasingly passive on Syria. And Obama's strategy of offering food to North Korea in exchange for collaboration with the IAEA hasn't worked (The Koreans have just lengthened their program, realizing how benficial it is). Romney has promised to punish North Korea if they don't stop their missile program. Romney is a stronger friend of Israel than the Democrats. He supports a stronger Israeli position in negotiations with Palestinians and he supports strong American backup for an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilites. We can't wait when it comes to Iran. North Korea aquiring nukes taught us we can't wait. I also believe it's too early to withdraw from Iraq (and Afghanistan too for that matter). Chaos will follow. |
Wow... Russia is a dictatorship. Thats news to me 
Anyways, I hope that Obama wins. When Romney denounced Russia as the USAs #1 geopolitical foe he lost all respect ffrom anybody who took a book in his hand, in the last 20 years or so. I see there are still plenty of rednecks out there, who think we are still in the 70's 
Vote the Mayor for Mayor!
dsgrue3 said:
1824 I didn't include because it was decided by the House. If your argument is that it is possible to win the popular and lose the electoral, then I agree. That's indisputable. If that was your only point, why didn't you say so instead of continuing with this idea that the popular vote isn't a determination of anything? "why use the popular vote to determine the electoral winner when there is a much better method available, namely, using the electoral college" True enough, but I would argue that it's easier to poll nationally than electorally. |
Because it isn't a determinant of anything. The electoral college, not the popular vote, determines the winner. That's been my point all along, and I've been consistent with that argument. This was my whole point about causal and explanatory power. If you are determining what causes electoral victory, it is not the popular vote.
| GameOver22 said: Because it isn't a determinant of anything. The electoral college, not the popular vote, determines the winner. That's been my point all along, and I've been consistent with that argument. This was my whole point about causal and explanatory power. If you are determining what causes electoral victory, it is not the popular vote. |
I know what determines the winner. My point is that winning the popular vote nearly guarantees an electoral win as well, as I've shown through historical elections.