By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close
chocoloco on 26 October 2012
Edit Thread
dsgrue3 said:
chocoloco said:
dsgrue3 said:
chocoloco said:

 

You make quite the assumption about voter turnout assuming the the vote will reflect the polls exactly . That being said, most of Romney's support comes from loss of White males that had voted Obama previously in states that never vote Republican anyways. If you look at the purple/swing states in all the polls today there is nothing, but positive news for Obama. Even the most consertvative stat collector sites like real clear politics actually reflect a shift in favor of Obama in most swing states. Get all huffy about history all you want it means nothing to me.

I also love how you show only polls done before the 25th.

 

I posted straight from the site, dude. The polls are from the 24th. Stop being such a pedant, that's the information they have. I didn't DISCLUDE information, I included what they had.

Real Clear Politics isn't remotely conservative either. It assembles almost all the polls, which would sway it liberal if anything.

Swing state polls clearly show the same race since the first debate, which is momemtum for Romney. Any other notion is, quite frankly, ridiculous.

Your bias and obtuseness to facts is astouding. Keep dreaming.

 

GameOver22 said:
dsgrue3 said:
GameOver22 said:

 



First off, I do think calling someone obtuse is technically against the rules. 2ndly my main confidence against the popular vote comes from two university models that predict the presidency that both make aggregates of the polls to make a more accurate picture of the popular vote. Both methods were used to pick the last election within 1-2 % accuracy concerning the popular vote.The Princeton model was dead on.

Nate Silver: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/

Princeton: http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/23/ro-mentum/

Now, the popular vote polls you mention are mostly from polls taken during times before 10/22/2012 the date of the final debate. In the next coming days, polls that only include days before the debate will come out. The final debate is believed to have little impact, yet it also appears any momentum Romney gained from the first debate has stopped after the last two debates.

In calling, Real Clear Politics conservative, I mean they are the most conservative in terms of giving states to any candidate. Therefore, it is often the one most cited by conservatives just as the gallop poll outliers are the polls most often mentioned by conservatives. If you dare to take a peak at even the fairly balanced CNN polls they are more liberal in calling states safe for each candidate and show a clear Obama advantage.