chocoloco said:
First off, I do think calling someone obtuse is technically against the rules. 2ndly my main confidence against the popular vote comes from two university models that predict the presidency that both make aggregates of the polls to make a more accurate picture of the popular vote. Both methods were used to pick the last election within 1-2 % accuracy concerning the popular vote.The Princeton model was dead on. Nate Silver: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/ Princeton: http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/23/ro-mentum/ Now, the popular vote polls you mention are mostly from polls taken during times before 10/22/2012 the date of the final debate. In the next coming days, polls that only include days before the debate will come out. The final debate is believed to have little impact, yet it also appears any momentum Romney gained from the first debate has stopped after the last two debates. In calling, Real Clear Politics conservative, I mean they are the most conservative in terms of giving states to any candidate. Therefore, it is often the one most cited by conservatives just as the gallop poll outliers are the polls most often mentioned by conservatives. If you dare to take a peak at even the fairly balanced CNN polls they are more liberal in calling states safe for each candidate and show a clear Obama advantage. |
Why don't you let the mods decide if referring to someone as obtuse is against the rules, okay?
You want polls that include the 25th? Fine:
| RCP Average | 10/15 - 10/25 | -- | -- | 47.9 | 47.0 | Romney +0.9 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/23 - 10/25 | 1500 LV | 3.0 | 50 | 47 | Romney +3 |
| ABC News/Wash Post | 10/22 - 10/25 | 1382 LV | 3.0 | 49 | 48 | Romney +1 |
| Gallup | 10/19 - 10/25 | 2700 LV | 2.0 | 51 | 46 | Romney +5 |
I agree with you about RCP being very conservative for calling states favorable to one candidate. However, this is as a result of an assembly of so many polling services that it does make more sense to leave it that way. Most polls tend to have +/- 3 for accuracy. CNN does not even list their margin of error. Laughably ignorant. Otherwise I think CNN is faily close to the middle politically.
Nate Silver has the popular vote at 50-48 Obama. That alone refutes any further research into that source.
The princeton one has Obama tracking up electorally in recent days/weeks. This is simply untrue and contrary to what every other source has been stipulating.
The problem with some of the polls you've probably seen is if Obama/Romney is polling +2, they give that state to the candidate. What they don't tell you is that their margin of error is +/- 3 making the assertion that a state is for one candidate over another completely false.
