That's the 360 version of GTAIV.

Why are you comparing a PS3 game to a 360 game? Each platform has different domographs, different tie ratios, different selling patterns. The average 360 gamer has 1 more game then the average PS3 gamer (9.76 vs. 8.74), and 360 has a much larger base in the combined Americas/EMEAA (Japan is a terrible territory for old game sales due to the used game market).

This is an unfair comparision, change it to GTA IV for PS3 for fairness.

I think he simply chose two games with two very similar patterns so that we can get an idea of where GT5 may end. Even if it's different demographics and whatnot, the two lines are practically overlapping so he considered it to be the best example to see possible future trends. That's what he considered "fair".

That said, this holiday GT5 is going to clearly surpass that line, the games were exchanging 1st position in each holiday bump, but the one for GTAIV at around week 85 didn't put it ahead, so now GT5 will steer clear.

Yea, but the PS3 version of the game is only 500k lower, and it would give us a better idea of how well old games sell on PS3. Like I said 360 has a bigger tie ratio and a larger presence in regions which push late life game sales. I don't think GT5 will hold to GTA Iv's late life pattern.

However 10 million is possible......,but only because of bundles :P

Let's see some possible significant goals for GT5, based on PD data.

http://www.polyphony.co.jp/english/list.html

Gran Turismo Series Software Title List

Worldwide

Sony and PD have many goals available: if GT5 gets close to GT2, the first obvious goal is 9.5M to beat it, if it can do it easily enough, 10M becomes an obvious goal too, so yes, if it will get close to 10M, special offers and bundles are almost sure to make it reach that goal, taht would mean also 4th best selling GT title ever.

Successive possible goals aren't evenly spaced.

The first successive goal would be 3rd place, that's quite higher than 10M, so Sony won't try to reach it just because it reached 10M, but it could try if only it gets closer.

OTOH 3rd place is close to 11M and not too far from 2nd place.

So, if GT5 gets close to 10M, it's granted that Sony will try to reach it, but if it reaches it slowly, it won't try anything higher.
OTOH, if GT5 keeps on selling well enough to reach 3rd place, Sony will surely try to make it reach the 11M goal, and at that point 2nd place ever would be a far closer and easier successive goal than reaching 3rd place if it arrives at 4th at a slow pace.

So, any goal higher than 4th place and 10M will strictly depend on how fast and with how much momentum left these first goals will be reached.

Why are you comparing a PS3 game to a 360 game? Each platform has different domographs, different tie ratios, different selling patterns. The average 360 gamer has 1 more game then the average PS3 gamer (9.76 vs. 8.74), and 360 has a much larger base in the combined Americas/EMEAA (Japan is a terrible territory for old game sales due to the used game market).

This is an unfair comparision, change it to GTA IV for PS3 for fairness.

Yea, but the PS3 version of the game is only 500k lower, and it would give us a better idea of how well old games sell on PS3. Like I said 360 has a bigger tie ratio and a larger presence in regions which push late life game sales. I don't think GT5 will hold to GTA Iv's late life pattern.

However 10 million is possible......,but only because of bundles :P

Hmmm, I don't know about the bolded. Why would a larger presence in NA, UK, etc. warrant better legs? I thought these regions were more frontloaded, actually, but I could be wrong.

Anyway, about the legs. GT is a monster in Europe. It's normal that you don't understand its legs because you are from NA, where the game is not that big and you may not understand its demographics.

For example, in the UK PS3 sold 5m and GT5 1m, meaning a 20% attatch ratio. GT is a game with a very wide appeal, the casual audience (or last gen's definition of casual, purchasers of FIFA, CoD, F1, etc.) knows the brand very well, and these people tend to buy brands they know, and they tend to keep buying the game long after release. When someone buys a PS3 and look at the games available, Gran Turismo is one of the games that stand out. Europeans absolutely love cars and GT is the racing game. An the brand is only growing here. It's best selling GT in Europe already and keeps on going, despite the lower user base. Though the decline in Japan and lower interest in NA didn't help its cause.

Of course the bundles help, but all GT's have been bundled to some extent, it's a brand that attracts sales after all.

Because they've been selling practically identically for two years now. That should be enough evidence that they will continue selling similarly for the next few years. Even with all those different factors, they've managed to balance out extremely well. Doesn't matter which is fair, I'm just looking for patterns, and the 360 version was the best candidate.

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The PS3 version of GTA IV has had a better late life pattern than the 360 version though