Can Gran Turismo 5 still reach 10 million?

[ethomaz]

Alby_da_Wolf said:

Let's see some possible significant goals for GT5, based on PD data.

http://www.polyphony.co.jp/english/list.html

Gran Turismo Series Software Title List

Worldwide

Title	Units (K)*
Gran Turismo	10,850
Gran Turismo 2	9,370
Gran Turismo 3 A-spec	14,890
Gran Turismo Concept Series	1,560
Gran Turismo 4 “Prologue”	1,400
Gran Turismo 4	11,440
Gran Turismo 5 “Prologue”	5,340
Gran Turismo PSP	3,610
Gran Turismo 5	7,430
Total	65,890

Sony and PD have many goals available: if GT5 gets close to GT2, the first obvious goal is 9.5M to beat it, if it can do it easily enough, 10M becomes an obvious goal too, so yes, if it will get close to 10M, special offers and bundles are almost sure to make it reach that goal, taht would mean also 4th best selling GT title ever.

Successive possible goals aren't evenly spaced.

The first successive goal would be 3rd place, that's quite higher than 10M, so Sony won't try to reach it just because it reached 10M, but it could try if only it gets closer.

OTOH 3rd place is close to 11M and not too far from 2nd place.

So, if GT5 gets close to 10M, it's granted that Sony will try to reach it, but if it reaches it slowly, it won't try anything higher.
OTOH, if GT5 keeps on selling well enough to reach 3rd place, Sony will surely try to make it reach the 11M goal, and at that point 2nd place ever would be a far closer and easier successive goal than reaching 3rd place if it arrives at 4th at a slow pace.

So, any goal higher than 4th place and 10M will strictly depend on how fast and with how much momentum left these first goals will be reached.

One thing about these goals/number that people here doesn't undertand is GT5 is not to stop selling after the PS4 came out.

The GT4 is still selling 200-300k per year... so while the PS3 sell GT5 also will sell.

I want to see the it performance this holidays (the first with massive bundles)... if something like Uncharted 2 happend then I will have to review my actual predictions (I already downgrade my predictions one time... maybe I can upgrade they now).

The Uncharted 2 bundled sales in Holidays.

Week 59: 129,720 (PS3 773,399)
Week 60: 71,529 (PS3 604,202)
Week 61: 85,377 (667,327)
Week 62: 82,730 (863,590)
Week 63: 88,906 (922,034)

458,262 in five weeks.