Gamerace said: The last factor is I truly believe WiiU will under-achieve but will be quickly followed up by Nintendo's 7th home console. It's looking more likely that WiiU launches 2012, Xbox 720 2013 and PS4 2014 and then Wii3 in 2016. This gives Nintendo a large strategic advantage if they launch another truly innovative machine as MS/Sony will be too committed to their loss leading machines to possibly respond. |
I'm not sure I see this as likely ...
Poor performing consoles (generally) end up selling around 50% to 60% of the level of their previous generation counterparts; and the Wii U averaging 10 Million units per year would still make it a viable system, especially being that publishers will (likely) be moving towards games that scale to play on as many platforms as possible. Beyond that you have to consider the impact of launching first. Suppose you have two systems launching a year apart with one system selling 15 million units and the other selling 7.5 million units. If the better selling system launches second this is what you get
1: 7.5 vs 0
2: 15 vs 15
3: 22.5 vs 30
4: 30 vs. 45
5: 37.5 vs. 60
6: 45 vs 75
7: 52.5 vs 90
8: 60 vs 105
Now, if the better selling system launches first:
1: 15 vs 0
2: 30 vs 7.5
3: 45 vs 15
4: 60 vs 22.5
5: 75 vs 30
6: 90 vs 37.5
7: 105 vs 45
Assuming all else is equal, when the better selling system launches second you would expect third party support to drop of to the first system between year 6 and 8 and when the better selling system launches first you would expect third party support to drop off to the second system between years 3 and 5.