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Forums - Sales - 3DS vs PSV 2012 Edition: 3DS 30m or PSV 5m? (Oct 6th: Vita > 3m!)

 

Which milestone will occur first: 3DS 30m or PSV 5m?

Both before Jan 5th, but 3DS first 77 16.67%
 
Both before Jan 5th, but PSV first 35 7.58%
 
3DS before Jan 5th, PSV after 179 38.74%
 
PSV before Jan 5th, 3DS after 59 12.77%
 
Both after Jan 5th, but 3DS first 83 17.97%
 
Both after Jan 5th, but PSV first 29 6.28%
 
Total:462
Sam3o on 24 August 2012
the_dengle said:

I think they'll both pass the marks you set by Jan 5th, but 3DS first. With a new hardware model, a new 2D Mario, the great software lineup this Holiday, and the typical sales boost Nintendo always get in Nov/Dec... no contest, even with the benchmark for Vita set so low. Vita has sold 2.5 mil in the past 8 months, and it'll struggle to sell another 1 mil before the end of October, while 3DS will easily sell over 4 mil in the same period.

Wait, hang on a second....

As of August 11th, these are the sales numbers that we have:

    2011 Sales (Week Ending Dec 31st): 3DS = 13,250,062 - PSV = 481,573
    2012 Sales (Week Ending Aug 11th): 3DS = 5,947,661 - PSV = 2,172,615

3DS sold less than 50% its 2011 numbers so far this year, while Vita sold more than 4 times its 2011 numbers? 3DS IS D00MED CONFIRMED

@ last line... LOL!!! If you were a "certain" video game analyst, I woudn't be surprised if this actually made headlines across the internet.



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glimmer_of_hope on 24 August 2012

Vita doesn't stand a chance, 3DS will continue to stomp Vita in the ground.



                                  Gaming Away Life Since 1985


Salnax on 24 August 2012
glimmer_of_hope said:
Vita doesn't stand a chance, 3DS will continue to stomp Vita in the ground.


So much for your username.



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CChaos on 24 August 2012

Rather looking forward to seeing how this goes. I voted for both after, but the 3DS first, based off of current 3DS numbers and wonder about whether the big games of later in the year will prop up the Vita numbers. As I am always a fan of statistics, this'll be a rather interesting contest, I'd imagine.



benao87 on 24 August 2012
Sam3o said:
Salnax said:
Vita will "win," despite selling massively less. We're talking about under 3 vs over 10 million sales necessary to reach the appropriate numbers. The Vita won't be doing great, but it has a bit more life left than a lot of people are saying.

Seeing how 3DS needs 10.8m and Vita needs 2.3m, a little math will show us that 3DS needs to sell > 4.7 times PSV sales from now until 2013 for it to "win". This week alone, the ratio is more like 7:1 even without NSMB2 in the west and without 3DS XL in the US. Still, starting from September, Vita sales will improve when the games start rolling and I expect it to be close in the end (1 or 2 weeks difference).

OOOPS! I meant 6:1


Interesting observation. Interesting indeed.



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Sam3o on 24 August 2012

August 18th 2012 UPDATE:

  • 2011 Sales (Week Ending Dec 31st): 3DS = 13,250,062 - PSV = 481,573
  • 2012 Sales (Week Ending Aug 18th): 3DS = 6,188,671 - PSV = 2,209,870

3DS Sales:

Week Ending Weekly Sales LTD Sales Sales Left Weeks Left To Milestone (est)
11/08/2012 216,666 19,197,723 10,802,277 49.86
18/08/2012 241,010 19,438,733 10,561,267 43.82
25/08/2012   19,438,733 10,561,267  
01/09/2012   19,438,733 10,561,267  
08/09/2012   19,438,733 10,561,267  
15/09/2012   19,438,733 10,561,267  
22/09/2012   19,438,733 10,561,267  
29/09/2012   19,438,733 10,561,267  
06/10/2012   19,438,733 10,561,267  
13/10/2012   19,438,733 10,561,267  
20/10/2012   19,438,733 10,561,267  
27/10/2012   19,438,733 10,561,267  
03/11/2012   19,438,733 10,561,267  
10/11/2012   19,438,733 10,561,267  
17/11/2012   19,438,733 10,561,267  
24/11/2012   19,438,733 10,561,267  
01/12/2012   19,438,733 10,561,267  
08/12/2012   19,438,733 10,561,267  
15/12/2012   19,438,733 10,561,267  
22/12/2012   19,438,733 10,561,267  
29/12/2012   19,438,733 10,561,267  
05/01/2013   19,438,733 10,561,267  

PSV Sales:

Week Ending Weekly Sales LTD Sales Sales Left Weeks Left To Milestone (est)
11/08/2012 35,686 2,654,657 2,345,343 65.72
18/08/2012 36,786 2,691,443 2,308,557 62.76
25/08/2012   2,691,443 2,308,557  
01/09/2012   2,691,443 2,308,557  
08/09/2012   2,691,443 2,308,557  
15/09/2012   2,691,443 2,308,557  
22/09/2012   2,691,443 2,308,557  
29/09/2012   2,691,443 2,308,557  
06/10/2012   2,691,443 2,308,557  
13/10/2012   2,691,443 2,308,557  
20/10/2012   2,691,443 2,308,557  
27/10/2012   2,691,443 2,308,557  
03/11/2012   2,691,443 2,308,557  
10/11/2012   2,691,443 2,308,557  
17/11/2012   2,691,443 2,308,557  
24/11/2012   2,691,443 2,308,557  
01/12/2012   2,691,443 2,308,557  
08/12/2012   2,691,443 2,308,557  
15/12/2012   2,691,443 2,308,557  
22/12/2012   2,691,443 2,308,557  
29/12/2012   2,691,443 2,308,557  
05/01/2013   2,691,443 2,308,557  


Sam3o on 24 August 2012

Good news for Vita! It seems it has been adjusted upwards (No, not downwards as most were expecting). 459 units to be exact :P



TWRoO on 25 August 2012
Sam3o said:
Good news for Vita! It seems it has been adjusted upwards (No, not downwards as most were expecting). 459 units to be exact :P

That kinda adjustment happens almost every week, the previous week or two changing by a few hundred or thousand as the new weeks data comes in... If the Vita does need to be adjusted down significantly it will effect multiple past weeks (probably 4-5 months worth)



the2real4mafol on 25 August 2012

PS vita before 5th Jan, 3ds after

Games like Assassin's creed, Call of duty and Little big planet should help PS vita do this

While the, 3DS i'm not sure what games it has coming out. Mario was still help it sell though.
It will struggle to get 30 million, despite good sales

I predict By Jan 5th
3DS- 26.8 million
PS vita- 6.2 million



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TWRoO on 25 August 2012
the2real4mafol said:
PS vita before 5th Jan, 3ds after

Games like Assassin's creed, Call of duty and Little big planet should help PS vita do this

While the, 3DS i'm not sure what games it has coming out. Mario was still help it sell though.
It will struggle to get 30 million, despite good sales

I predict By Jan 5th
3DS- 26.8 million
PS vita- 6.2 million

So you are predicting that between now and Jan 5th 3DS sells 7.4m to Vita's 3.5m.... that's quite an extreme change from the current trends.

More often than not (ie unless there is a huge price cut or a hardware revision) the mid-point for yearly sales is in late September,you would have a decent (though still a little pessimistic in my opinion) prediction for 3DS if it didn't have the 3DSXL. By the week ending Sep 22nd 3DS will be well over 7.4 million (even if it only sold 200k per week it would be, but it's selling more than that now and the XL isn't out in America yet) and in all likelyhood will be able to sell the same again from then till the end of the year. I think a pessimistic prediction would therefore be it sell 8.6 million from now till Jan 5th... that's based on 200k for the next 6 weeks then doubling whet it has sold so far in 2012 (7.4m + 1.2m). That's pessimistic for two reasons: 1. It will sell more than 1.2m in the next 6 weeks. and 2. Given the new model I expect the mid-point for yearly sales to be a little later than usual (by 1-2 weeks).

The Vita has sold 2.2m so far this year, and if we optimistically assume it will sell 250k in the next 6 weeks that puts it around 2.45m for 2012 by week ending Sep 22nd. Doubling that gives a 2012 total of 4.9m, which is 2.7m from now till Jan 5th. However given it had quite a successful Western launch in the first half of the year, I suspect the Vita's sales mid-point will be earlier than normal... but as an optmistic figure a further 2.7 million isn't bad.

(Cumulative platform totals in the two situations: gives 28m 3DS and 5.4m Vitas... Which is pessimism for 3DS and optimism for Vita, this is assuming no big adjustments to past VGC figures anyway)