| the2real4mafol said: PS vita before 5th Jan, 3ds after Games like Assassin's creed, Call of duty and Little big planet should help PS vita do this While the, 3DS i'm not sure what games it has coming out. Mario was still help it sell though. It will struggle to get 30 million, despite good sales I predict By Jan 5th 3DS- 26.8 million PS vita- 6.2 million |
So you are predicting that between now and Jan 5th 3DS sells 7.4m to Vita's 3.5m.... that's quite an extreme change from the current trends.
More often than not (ie unless there is a huge price cut or a hardware revision) the mid-point for yearly sales is in late September,you would have a decent (though still a little pessimistic in my opinion) prediction for 3DS if it didn't have the 3DSXL. By the week ending Sep 22nd 3DS will be well over 7.4 million (even if it only sold 200k per week it would be, but it's selling more than that now and the XL isn't out in America yet) and in all likelyhood will be able to sell the same again from then till the end of the year. I think a pessimistic prediction would therefore be it sell 8.6 million from now till Jan 5th... that's based on 200k for the next 6 weeks then doubling whet it has sold so far in 2012 (7.4m + 1.2m). That's pessimistic for two reasons: 1. It will sell more than 1.2m in the next 6 weeks. and 2. Given the new model I expect the mid-point for yearly sales to be a little later than usual (by 1-2 weeks).
The Vita has sold 2.2m so far this year, and if we optimistically assume it will sell 250k in the next 6 weeks that puts it around 2.45m for 2012 by week ending Sep 22nd. Doubling that gives a 2012 total of 4.9m, which is 2.7m from now till Jan 5th. However given it had quite a successful Western launch in the first half of the year, I suspect the Vita's sales mid-point will be earlier than normal... but as an optmistic figure a further 2.7 million isn't bad.
(Cumulative platform totals in the two situations: gives 28m 3DS and 5.4m Vitas... Which is pessimism for 3DS and optimism for Vita, this is assuming no big adjustments to past VGC figures anyway)
