This was exactly what I was talking about. With the birth of low-value-high-replay games at the AppleStore/GoogleMarket and whatsoever, people are getting pickier on games that they don't know about it.

Just for clearance, I'll give you guys an example: when I bought my DS, I was able to play LOTS of 3rd party games, and I kinda fell in love for Atlus, mostly for that Summon Night game. I've never heard of any other games made by them before (I live in Brazil, so I don't get to know games by their publishers), but since it was free (I know, piracy is wrong, I'm not here to defend it anyway) I was trying every games that I could, and this Summon Night: Twin Age was one of those games.

And I loved it. It was a GREAT game, a real nice story and a real cool background. I loved the game so much that I almost bought the original game. But since I wasn't able to find it in my city (I lived in São Paulo back then, it's one of the biggest city when it comes to tech products), I didn't buy it.

Now, the other part of my story: Golden Sun. Same background, I played the first two games on my PC (emulators FTW), and I REALLY loved the games. And, since one of my friends was travelling to the US, I asked him to get me the Golden Sun: Dark Dawn for my DS. And, right after, I bought the the GBA games via eBay.

Why did I give two different examples: for you to understand how people feel when they are confronted with the decision of buying a new game. If you've already played any games that made you love the publisher, you'll end up buying it anyway: great games like those you know that you are not going to regret it. But, when it comes to a game that you only liked one, you'll think twice before doing so.

Now, applying it to the pricetag: I prefer to pay 30 dollars on a GREAT game that I know I'm going to love, but when it comes to new franchises, I'm forced to rethink it. And now everyone have access to those mobile apps like Swordigo (a great 16bits-like RPG for the iPhone - $2), SpellSword (crazily fun hack 'n slash with some RPG feats and with a bigmouthed hero - $1), and a lot of other "cool" games that I'll end up playing 10~20 hours tops and then I'll find other cool games with that same pricetag and I'll think: "Screw it, it's only a frikking dollar", and maybe I'll find a great game for like $5, if I'm feeling pretty enough to give me this kind of gift.

Maybe this is the reason why some 3rd-party games are not as great as they used to be: people are spending "less" in games, so they want something HUGE for $30. People will spend that on Mario, Zelda, Pokémon, Metroid and a LOT of other great franchises wiithout a single blink, but when it comes to something new and somehow unknown to them, they won't spend it as easy as they used to spend before.

The only solution I can see right now is: free demos, and a LOT of them. It's the only way that will make people open their wallets, you'll have to prove that your game is EXCELLENT, and worth buying.

Maybe it's just me, but I'm forced to think that people are having this behavior lately, because that's how I'm feeling, and I'm a huge fan of Nintendo. I'm just not sure that a new company (at least new to me) will give me so much pleasure. And I'm not comparing the gaming experience here, please. I'm a 3DS enthusiast, I've already stated that here, but this is the new situation that's unfolding here: people won't care to pay $2 for a crappy game that has average reviews . But they will think a lot before buying something new. Perhaps they are losing a lot of EPIC games thinking this way, but that's how the market is behaving right now.

 I think the Wii U will have a lot better support. For the 3DS, I think we might have to wait a little longer to see for sure.

A very interesting read. My hope is that this will cause most of the shovelware to migrate to iOS and Android, while leaving the dedicated consoles free of the trash.

Mind you Nintendo has the e-shop and the NN, so we will see how devs take advantage of that platform. For WiiU, the appstore must be very seemless quick and easy to use, otherwise they may cripple their sales.

I'm pretty sure I remember reading somewhere that Circle of the Moon broke 1m copies as well.  I think it was on GT's retrospective they did a while back.

Kind of Edit:

http://www.gametrailers.com/full-episodes/l7v3qr/gt-retrospectives-part-iv--procession-of-portability

go to 9:40: 'The first GBA Castlevania did what it's forefathers could not; sell over 1 million copies'.

They don't expand on whether 'forefathers' is used to describe all previous Castlevania games, or just all previous handheld games in the series.  However I wouldn't be surprised if SotN didn't break 1m copies sold, despite being my favourite castlevania game I have played.  I imagine the game might've seemed backwards at the time for keeping 2d, maybe harming sales, I not sure to be honest.

Mmm interesting read! And it has a few points to it as well.

But couldn't mobile games be sort of a portal to handheld gaming? If kids start playing iOS games they might buy a 3DS later on to get better games?

I think the vast majority of the the mobile/ social games business are in a bubble, and it's going to burst within the next few years. The exponential, extreme growth of any category doesn't last indefinitely. The bubble will burst, as they always do, and there will be a deep depression of demand for those types of games. People will fall back on the tried-and-true console business formula because it's safer and it's proven to work. Newbies like Zynga are already starting to see the effects of it.

3DS and Vita, and by extension Nintendo and Sony, are and will be just fine. The only problem I see with Nintendo and Sony is that it took them a bit too long to realize that you can't sell Tetris for $40 when it's 99 cents for the exact same product on smartphones and tablets. They both realize this now, and I think from here on out it will be high-production, blockbuster games that people will be willing to pay a premium for.

I think it is definitely an issue. They effectively alienated every third party developer when they made the wii. Almost every 3rd party game on the wiiu is a direct port from the other consoles.

Third party to Nintendo?

What they should do is offer both ends of the spectrum: the high end, high quality games, such as Mario and Zelda, AND the $1 games, such as Angry Bird...

Nintendo is trying to do it. Games like Zenonia, Plants vs Zombies and a lot of other games are coming to the eShop.