So as of July 25th it looks like DQX has 155,000 preorders in Japan, last year Dragon Quest Collection only got to 140,000 preorders, and then it sold about 290,000 units week one.

I reckon DQX will get to about 200,000 preorders. Typically games double their preorder level on Wii, but sometimes it's more like x1.5 or x1.75, either way, it looks like DQX is a pretty safe bet for a 300,000 - 400,000 opening in Japan, and it should hold at a fairly high level with Obon coming mid-month. Given Kirby pushed some hardware this week, and Just Dance will push some hw next week, I reckon we're going to see at least four weeks in Japan where Wii is above 10,000 again as DQ / Mario Party / Just Dance / Kirby will each sell fairly well into late August.

I'm willing to say with a fair amount of certainty too, that DQX week is probably the last non-Dec/Jan week that Wii will top 25,000 in Japan (I'm expecting about 12,000 for JD week, and 28,000 for DQX week one, )

It looks like it did 320,000 or so week one. It's hard to say if that is above or below what they wanted since it is MMO-ish and not RPG-ish (ala DQ1-9), and also on two platforms. If they get 500,000 subscribers on the Wii version though - and that does appear likely - they should make a ton of money on Wii and Wii U with the game.

NSMB 3DS also held well, with JD2, and Kirby hardly falling at all which bodes well for a lot of "Nintendo" customers buying stuff this week in Japan.