I voted 3DS, it's by far the most likely scenario. Here's how I'd estimate the likelihoods, and reasoning as to why:

3DS at 90%, for fairly obvious reasons - it's leading, it's a fresh system coming into its second holiday season with multiple system sellers (primarily NSMB2), and it has an XL version also launching.

PS3 at 5%. This mostly happens if either the PS3 "super slim" taps into some unexpected market, or the 3DS falters (or more likely, a combination of the two).

360 at 1%. Very slim chance of the $99 deal driving large sales, and this system is the oldest, making it even harder for it to perform strongly enough to beat both PS3 and 3DS. Mostly, it needs a perfect storm - 3DS faltering, PS3 super slim being shunned, and Wii U struggling out of the gate due to high price (thereby making the 360 seem like an appropriate "cheap" alternative).

Wii at 1%. This one rests on a major price drop driving sales to unexpected strength again. $99 isn't going to cut it for the Wii to surpass the 3DS, it would have to drop below $75 at least, and I doubt Nintendo will go that low this year. Dropped to $79, it could just eke past PS3 if the PS3 has a weak second half of the year - the most likely cause for this would be the Wii U being priced similarly to the PS3 and the super slim version failing (both, together).

PSV at 0.5%. This just isn't going to happen. It would have to have some major system-selling software, probably a price cut, and more of a perfect storm than the 360 needs.

Wii U at 2.5%. This requires a major coup that could be announced in the coming months (some major exclusive, or support from an unlikely source, like Valve). It also requires that Nintendo manufactures enough units and prices it low enough. It has a higher chance than the previous three because its "perfect storm" conditions are primarily in Nintendo's hands, whereas none of the three can control the conditions of their perfect storms.

The Wii U is at half the likelihood of the PS3. That seems like an unfair comparison, when taken at face value. And it would be, if it weren't for the 3DS. In the absence of the 3DS, the likelihoods would be something like 90% PS3, 9% Wii U. But the 3DS poses a challenge for the PS3, whereas the Wii U, if it satisfies the conditions, will shoot past both.

Jay520 said: phenom08 said: Notice how plenty of the Sony fans are mentioning 3DS wins but PS3 will be runner up even though the op never asked for the runner up lol. They want a victory that bad lol. wut?

Your probably a sony fan so ill break it down for you. The OP asked for a winner that means 1. One console, that the winner and the runner up. Fans are putting the PS3 in the conversation after they have already said the 3DS will win. There's a reason for that. They wanna win that bad. When they know a repeat of last wont happen this year. The PS3 barely edged the 3DS last year thanks to the 3DS not have enough time on the market and having a slow start.

phenom08 said: Jay520 said: phenom08 said: Notice how plenty of the Sony fans are mentioning 3DS wins but PS3 will be runner up even though the op never asked for the runner up lol. They want a victory that bad lol. wut? Your probably a sony fan so ill break it down for you. The OP asked for a winner that means 1. One console, that the winner and the runner up. Fans are putting the PS3 in the conversation after they have already said the 3DS will win. There's a reason for that. They wanna win that bad. When they know a repeat of last wont happen this year. The PS3 barely edged the 3DS last year thanks to the 3DS not have enough time on the market and having a slow start.

lol this guy thinks everyone is a sony fan. calm down. its like you've come here for a damn war.

CGI-Quality said: phenom08 said: CGI-Quality said: phenom08 said: Notice how plenty of the Sony fans are mentioning 3DS wins but PS3 will be runner up even though the op never asked for the runner up lol. They want a victory that bad lol. Interesting, it practically seems like an even split between known PlayStation and Xbox fans mentioning the PS3. Maybe my eyes deceive me, who knows? OT: 3DS will take the win without a second thought (although since you said console, unless Microsoft is planning a price cut [unlikely with the Halo 4 console launching @ $399.99], the PS3 would be the obvious choice). Well since I cant really prove whom they are a fan of except if they make it obvious, i think you are right. But the point was there should be no mention of the PS3 at all unless you think it will win. Thats where the fanboyism is revealed. There will always be favoritism in a thread like this. It's not anything worth noting.

I understand what you are saying, Im not trying to stop it, it just reveals the ones that are butthurt over the 3DS winning in a landslide. Hell you have one poster saying has been getting beat in America and Europe all year and saying how its not untouchable. Well i guess he failed to realize even getting beat in the biggest territories its still ahead so i guess that proves the PS3 is a poor seller does it not. Its beating the the PS3 in the two largest territories and still cant win globally lol.

3DS, no doubt in my mind.

Even a PS3 revision and pricecut won't be able to pull ahead the 3DS in the holiday season. However I think the PS3 can be pretty even with the 3DS (total year sales), or possibly ahead, just prior to the Holiday season. PS3 will come in second.

CGI-Quality said: phenom08 said: CGI-Quality said: There will always be favoritism in a thread like this. It's not anything worth noting. I understand what you are saying, Im not trying to stop it, it just reveals the ones that are butthurt over the 3DS winning in a landslide. Hell you have one poster saying has been getting beat in America and Europe all year and saying how its not untouchable. Well i guess he failed to realize even getting beat in the biggest territories its still ahead so i guess that proves the PS3 is a poor seller does it not. Its beating the the PS3 in the two largest territories and still cant win globally lol. By mentioning it, you stick yourself in a situation of biased scrutiny of your own. Just let people vote how they want to vote, because you end up behaving and looking like the very folks you're condemning.

I am letting people vote like they want. Theres no second place correct. I said a couple of post ago, the PS3 shouldnt be mentioned if its not what you're going with. Im just pointing out the mention of it as runner up, like i said theres a reason why its being mentioned. What i do is troll trolls, why should they just be allowed to troll and someone not troll them. Look a what Barozi did on the very first page, unless he was joking, which now that i think about it he probably was just joking. What biased scrutiny have i placed myself in? Serious question, I really do value your opinion because your one of the reasonable sony fans and not an hating one for no reason at all.

phenom08 said: Jay520 said: phenom08 said: Notice how plenty of the Sony fans are mentioning 3DS wins but PS3 will be runner up even though the op never asked for the runner up lol. They want a victory that bad lol. wut? Your probably a sony fan so ill break it down for you. The OP asked for a winner that means 1. One console, that the winner and the runner up. Fans are putting the PS3 in the conversation after they have already said the 3DS will win. There's a reason for that. They wanna win that bad. When they know a repeat of last wont happen this year. The PS3 barely edged the 3DS last year thanks to the 3DS not have enough time on the market and having a slow start.

Actually sir, you've got it confused. People are listing the PS3 as # 2, yes. But why aren't they mentioning the Xbox at #3? Or the #4 console? Why are they stopping the list at #2? I'll tell you why: They want to make the PS3 seem worse than what it is. By creating a list of two and putting the PS3 in second, that leaves the PS3 in last place. The bottom of the barrel. These people could make 2nd place seem respectable by including 3rd, 4th and 5th place. But no, they stop at 2nd place to make the ps3 be in last place - The Ultimate Loser. The truth is: everyone in here is a Sony hater, whether deliberately or mistakenly. Deep down, we all hate Sony.

But of course, that's just coming fom my tiny Sony-fan brain.

Jay520 said: phenom08 said: Jay520 said: phenom08 said: Notice how plenty of the Sony fans are mentioning 3DS wins but PS3 will be runner up even though the op never asked for the runner up lol. They want a victory that bad lol. wut? Your probably a sony fan so ill break it down for you. The OP asked for a winner that means 1. One console, that the winner and the runner up. Fans are putting the PS3 in the conversation after they have already said the 3DS will win. There's a reason for that. They wanna win that bad. When they know a repeat of last wont happen this year. The PS3 barely edged the 3DS last year thanks to the 3DS not have enough time on the market and having a slow start. Actually sir, you've got it confused. People are listing the PS3 as # 2, yes. But why aren't they mentioning the Xbox at #3? Or the #4 console? Why are they stopping the list at #2? I'll tell you why: They want to make the PS3 seem worse than what it is. By creating a list of two and putting the PS3 in second, that leaves the PS3 in last place. The bottom of the barrel. These people could make 2nd place seem respectable by including 3rd, 4th and 5th place. But no, they stop at 2nd place to make the ps3 be in last place - The Ultimate Loser. The truth is: everyone in here is a Sony hater, whether deliberately or mistakenly. Deep down, we all hate Sony. But of course, that's just coming fom my tiny Sony-fan brain.

I guess you're just joking so ok.

phenom08 said: Jay520 said: phenom08 said: Jay520 said: phenom08 said: Notice how plenty of the Sony fans are mentioning 3DS wins but PS3 will be runner up even though the op never asked for the runner up lol. They want a victory that bad lol. wut? Your probably a sony fan so ill break it down for you. The OP asked for a winner that means 1. One console, that the winner and the runner up. Fans are putting the PS3 in the conversation after they have already said the 3DS will win. There's a reason for that. They wanna win that bad. When they know a repeat of last wont happen this year. The PS3 barely edged the 3DS last year thanks to the 3DS not have enough time on the market and having a slow start. Actually sir, you've got it confused. People are listing the PS3 as # 2, yes. But why aren't they mentioning the Xbox at #3? Or the #4 console? Why are they stopping the list at #2? I'll tell you why: They want to make the PS3 seem worse than what it is. By creating a list of two and putting the PS3 in second, that leaves the PS3 in last place. The bottom of the barrel. These people could make 2nd place seem respectable by including 3rd, 4th and 5th place. But no, they stop at 2nd place to make the ps3 be in last place - The Ultimate Loser. The truth is: everyone in here is a Sony hater, whether deliberately or mistakenly. Deep down, we all hate Sony. But of course, that's just coming fom my tiny Sony-fan brain. I guess you're just joking so ok.

Yeah, just going with the theme. See...when I saw your posts, I thought, "Damn, is this guy serious?" But then I thought about some more and thought, "nah, this is just too ridiculous to be serious." So now I'm just going with the flow.

CGI-Quality said: phenom08 said: CGI-Quality said: By mentioning it, you stick yourself in a situation of biased scrutiny of your own. Just let people vote how they want to vote, because you end up behaving and looking like the very folks you're condemning. What biased scrutiny have i placed myself in? Serious question, I really do value your opinion because your one of the reasonable sony fans and not an hating one for no reason at all. It means people can look and point fingers at you. Sure, silly childish game, but it's what happens when you throw out a judgment call that isn't needed. I get what you're saying about people needing to vote in accordance with the poll, but 99% of the time, that's just not what happens.  Instead of trolling "trolls", you could offer a counter argument with less aggression. Like: "Why are people voting for runner-ups when the thread only asks for a clear cut winner?". Sure, you'll probably get a few unfavorable responses, but at least you won't look like you have an agenda of your own (which saying you troll "trolls" can be seen as an act of having your own obvious bias). A certain can of worms can remained sealed is all I'm saying.

He's not talking about people voting for the PS3 in the poll. He's talking about people who say "3DS will be 1st and PS3 will be 2nd" in their post. He says these people are fanboys for mentioning the PS3. -____-