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Aielyn on 20 July 2012
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I voted 3DS, it's by far the most likely scenario. Here's how I'd estimate the likelihoods, and reasoning as to why:

3DS at 90%, for fairly obvious reasons - it's leading, it's a fresh system coming into its second holiday season with multiple system sellers (primarily NSMB2), and it has an XL version also launching.

PS3 at 5%. This mostly happens if either the PS3 "super slim" taps into some unexpected market, or the 3DS falters (or more likely, a combination of the two).

360 at 1%. Very slim chance of the $99 deal driving large sales, and this system is the oldest, making it even harder for it to perform strongly enough to beat both PS3 and 3DS. Mostly, it needs a perfect storm - 3DS faltering, PS3 super slim being shunned, and Wii U struggling out of the gate due to high price (thereby making the 360 seem like an appropriate "cheap" alternative).

Wii at 1%. This one rests on a major price drop driving sales to unexpected strength again. $99 isn't going to cut it for the Wii to surpass the 3DS, it would have to drop below $75 at least, and I doubt Nintendo will go that low this year. Dropped to $79, it could just eke past PS3 if the PS3 has a weak second half of the year - the most likely cause for this would be the Wii U being priced similarly to the PS3 and the super slim version failing (both, together).

PSV at 0.5%. This just isn't going to happen. It would have to have some major system-selling software, probably a price cut, and more of a perfect storm than the 360 needs.

Wii U at 2.5%. This requires a major coup that could be announced in the coming months (some major exclusive, or support from an unlikely source, like Valve). It also requires that Nintendo manufactures enough units and prices it low enough. It has a higher chance than the previous three because its "perfect storm" conditions are primarily in Nintendo's hands, whereas none of the three can control the conditions of their perfect storms.

The Wii U is at half the likelihood of the PS3. That seems like an unfair comparison, when taken at face value. And it would be, if it weren't for the 3DS. In the absence of the 3DS, the likelihoods would be something like 90% PS3, 9% Wii U. But the 3DS poses a challenge for the PS3, whereas the Wii U, if it satisfies the conditions, will shoot past both.