zarx said: Good god what a wall of text
I never said it was going to be a 25m unit franchise I was pointing out that Activision have other baskets, and ones that are currently growing. And they have exclusive rights to Bungies game for 10 years, I doubt even if it's a hit that it will be 10+ years of hit. And they have the option of extending unless bungie wants out at that point.
I never agued that Time warner wouldn't want Activision I argued they wouldn't want to get rid of Bobby Kotick as despite that you may hate what he does he does the only thing that investors care about which is boost profitability. You are argueing that they would want to get rid of them because you think that he might cause Activision to become less profitable in the future.
So if them selling a entertainment company (clearly getting rid of the least profitable first is smart) is not rellevent to your point of "why would Activision be first to be sold, given that it's profitable?" I mean it clearly shows that Activision-Blizzard is not the first and wasn't sold first as it was not profitable. It completely nullifies your objection.
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I tend to be verbose.
My observation was that the vast majority of Activision's work is within two baskets - one is Blizzard with MMOs, and the other is CoD, which they have something insane like 8 different studios working on it. Skylanders isn't big enough to really be more than a tiny basket in the meantime, and beyond that, they have external companies in publishing deals. And a 10-year publishing deal where the IP remains with the developer isn't exactly long-term, in the end, especially given that such a deal likely has certain "outs" to prevent a case where one of the two mismanages things. But then, the point is that Bungie can't make more Halo, or any of their other, previous franchises. That means that a Bungie deal is risky by nature.
And the real point with Time Warner is that, if they did buy Activision, they'd most likely reorganise - it's the studios that Time Warner wants, not the management. And given that stock prices would likely fall for Activision on the sale (as it's a buyer's market in this case), Kotick would probably want to cash in his stocks now, when the price is so high. And it's not that Kotick "might" make Activision less profitable in the future, it's that he has already done so. Franchise after franchise has been driven into the ground by Kotick, franchises that should have been alive and kicking now. Consider that, under Sony, Crash Bandicoot was huge. When Activision got hold of it, it rapidly dwindled.
Most older publishers have a set of older IPs that they continue to use, that they've built up over time. Capcom has, for instance, Mega Man and Street Fighter. Ubisoft still has Rayman and has created a new spinoff franchise from it. Square Enix has Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest (amongst others). What does Activision have? Their oldest "current" IP is Tony Hawk's games, from 1999, despite Activision having been around since 1979... and Tony Hawk's is a shadow of its former self, mostly barely surviving thanks to the Wii giving it just enough to survive. The top 13 Tony Hawks games (counting platforms separately) all released between 1999 and 2005. No Tony Hawks game since 2006 onwards has managed to sell over 1 million copies on a platform, and the only ones to come close were a Wii title and a PSP title.
And Vivendi sold their share of NBC Universal in 2010, mostly because GE was selling their share to Comcast. I don't think you can honestly claim that their decision to sell Activision is in any way related.